From the April issue of Southern Economic Journal:
According to this study, GMU Econ now ranks 41 OVERALL among programs in the U.S.
GMU is just behind #40 UNC-Chapel Hill, and above highly regarded programs such as Univ. of Washington (45), Texas A&M (49), Florida State (52), GW (54), U. Pittsburgh (59), Washington University (69), Emory (71), UC-Irvine (72) and VA Tech (75), and West Virginia (104).
More here. HT to Austrian Economists for the pointer.
GMU, of course, stands for George Mason University, my Alma Mater.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Gary Becker Meets Behavioral Economics
Yes, I suspect that psychology might have some potential use in economics (frankly, I have only read one book on behavioral economics, though I plan to also read Nudge and Sway).
But I am also puzzled by how behavioral economists would respond to Gary Becker's 1962 piece Irrational Behavior and Economic Theory, appeared in Journal of Political Economy, the purpose of which, in Becker's own words is to "show how the important theorems of modern economics result from a general principle which not only includes rational behavior and survivor arguments as special cases, but also much irrational behavior." (my emphasis).
But I am also puzzled by how behavioral economists would respond to Gary Becker's 1962 piece Irrational Behavior and Economic Theory, appeared in Journal of Political Economy, the purpose of which, in Becker's own words is to "show how the important theorems of modern economics result from a general principle which not only includes rational behavior and survivor arguments as special cases, but also much irrational behavior." (my emphasis).
Monday, June 02, 2008
Behavioral Economics = Freudian Pyschology ?
"Self-help books are among the hottest sales items in your favorite book store, right after Gothic novels and cookbooks. Many people are dissatisfied with their lives and don't quite know why. Self-help interpretations claim they offer helpful psychological insight, but do they? Freud gave us the quite valuable notions of id, ego, and superego, but also the quack notions of penis envy and oedipal complex. Later generations of self-help pop psychologists turned Freud into a cash cow of dangeriously overused but highly fashionable slogans, such as psychosomatic illness, inferiority complex, repressed memory, childhood trauma, and hysterical conversion syndrome.
Freudian psychology is just about dead in the self-help arena, but now we have a new contender for leader of the pop psychology: behavioral economics. (My emphasis) Ariely's is one of several new books that take the experimental results of the past quarter century and turn them into self-help. The main message is that we are irrational, but if we understand and correct for this, we can overcome our irrationality and improve our lives. "We are pawns in a game whose forces we largely fail to comprehend," says Ariely. "Although irrationality is commonplace," he continues, "it does not necessarily mean that we are helpless. Once we understand when and where we may make erroneous decisions, we can try to be vigilant." (p. 243)
Like Freudian psychology, behavioral economics gives us a few critically important insights, including hyperbolic discounting, excessive pattern-finding, loss aversion, status quo bias, and innate altruistic cooperation and punishment. However, just as Freud was mostly wrong (and therapeutically a high-maintenance disaster), so is behavioral economics, although I doubt that people will be paying $200 per hour to sit on a couch with a behavioral economics therapist."
That is H Gintis reviewing the book Predictably Irrational, more here (scroll down a bit and you will see it). Strangely enough , soon after writing this review, the same Gintis has a five-star review on the book Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein, also on behavioral economics.
Freudian psychology is just about dead in the self-help arena, but now we have a new contender for leader of the pop psychology: behavioral economics. (My emphasis) Ariely's is one of several new books that take the experimental results of the past quarter century and turn them into self-help. The main message is that we are irrational, but if we understand and correct for this, we can overcome our irrationality and improve our lives. "We are pawns in a game whose forces we largely fail to comprehend," says Ariely. "Although irrationality is commonplace," he continues, "it does not necessarily mean that we are helpless. Once we understand when and where we may make erroneous decisions, we can try to be vigilant." (p. 243)
Like Freudian psychology, behavioral economics gives us a few critically important insights, including hyperbolic discounting, excessive pattern-finding, loss aversion, status quo bias, and innate altruistic cooperation and punishment. However, just as Freud was mostly wrong (and therapeutically a high-maintenance disaster), so is behavioral economics, although I doubt that people will be paying $200 per hour to sit on a couch with a behavioral economics therapist."
That is H Gintis reviewing the book Predictably Irrational, more here (scroll down a bit and you will see it). Strangely enough , soon after writing this review, the same Gintis has a five-star review on the book Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein, also on behavioral economics.
Best Line on Government I Have Read Today
When demanding assistance from the state people forget that it is a demand upon the other citizens merely passed on through the government, but believe they are making a demand upon a sort of Fourth Dimension which is supposed to be able to supply the wants of all and sundry to their hearts' content without any individual person havnig to bear the burden.
Wilhelm Ropke cited in Jim Buchanan (2007) p. 136.
Wilhelm Ropke cited in Jim Buchanan (2007) p. 136.
Man of the Street is Better Politician than Intellectual
As a general rule states are better governed by the man in the street than by intellectuals. These are the sort of people who want to appear wiser than the laws, who want to get their own way in every general discussion, because they feel that they cannot show off their intelligence in matters of greater importance, and who, as a result, very often bring ruin on their country. But the other kind -- the people who are not so confident in their own intelligence -- are prepared to admit that the laws are wiser than they are...
Thucydides cited in Jim Buchanan (2007) p. 132
Thucydides cited in Jim Buchanan (2007) p. 132
Friday, May 23, 2008
天譴論 -- An Economic Exploration
天譴論最近在報刋鬧得火紅。
From my very limited understanding (for all those who know the theory better than I do, educate me please), the theory goes something like this:
Let A be God, B be the secular ruler, and C be the ruled.
The theory suggests, again my understanding might be incorrect here, that when B performs poorly, there will come a point where A will do something nasty, NOT to B, but to C instead as a signal of A's indignation towards B's acts. That is, the bad things happening to C serve as a red flag for B in the hope that B will cut back on his harmful acts targted at C.
But the question is, why B will do less of the bad acts when some of the costs of his bad actions are not borne by B himself or hershelf but shifted to C instead?
From my very limited understanding (for all those who know the theory better than I do, educate me please), the theory goes something like this:
Let A be God, B be the secular ruler, and C be the ruled.
The theory suggests, again my understanding might be incorrect here, that when B performs poorly, there will come a point where A will do something nasty, NOT to B, but to C instead as a signal of A's indignation towards B's acts. That is, the bad things happening to C serve as a red flag for B in the hope that B will cut back on his harmful acts targted at C.
But the question is, why B will do less of the bad acts when some of the costs of his bad actions are not borne by B himself or hershelf but shifted to C instead?
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Hayekian Insights on Development
Bill Easterly at NYU and Arvind Subramanian at the Center for Global Development debated Hayek's relevance on economic growth and development here.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
A Scholar's Act
Chicago's Emily Oster revises her thesis on the impact of hepatitis B on China's sex ratio. More here in this WSJ story.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
旗正下半 -- 楊懷康
感謝楊社長懷康讓讀者先睹其將在本週三刋出的專欄。
國務院為五一二四川大地震死難者下半旗三天，前所未有地把全世界的中國人凝聚 在一起。隨五星旗半下，希望的曙光在一片哀鴻中默默升起，照耀出開放、現代 、以人為本的新中國。倘若大災難能換來一個不再為天災人禍蹂躪的新中國，數以萬計的災民便沒有白白犧牲了。
○八既是改革開放三十年，亦是北京奧運年。這本來是標誌百年盛世、中國人站 起來的時刻。可是自年初以來一趟又一趟的天災（春運遇上雪雨）、人禍（山東火車超速出軌、西藏動亂），再加上世紀大地震，則又刻畫出中國人還有多遙遠的路 要走才到達那將安、將樂的小康社會。
中國人民無疑多災多難，當中又以人禍為甚。可幸吸取了文革十年浩劫的慘痛教訓，在三十年前執權者開始一步步為人民鬆綁，釋放出前所未有的生機，改變了河山面貌。經過百年苦難，中國人看到了明天、看到了希望。
然而開放鬆綁的道路是迂迴的。在十九年前的另一個春夏之交，天安門的坦克也將全世界的中國人在悲痛中凝聚了起來。血染的風采可沒有撲滅中國人的希望，拐過 一個小彎，執權者繼續開放向前行。經過廿年的持續發展，哪怕開放之路不是一遍坦途，十三億中國人的生活還是登上了個全新的台階。
是的，過去的三十年是邁向小康的三十年，也是執權者學習開放的三十年。痛定思痛，他們顯然學好了最寶貴的一課 —— 極權鎮壓是萬劫不復的不歸路，只有全面 開放、跟世界併軌，才是富強之路，才是中國的明天。
學好了這最寶貴的開放一課，大地震後，北京執權者沒有像緬甸的獨夫那樣閉關鎖國，置人民的死活於不顧。反之，他們放下由自卑感扭曲而成的面子，接受全世界的關懷與支援，更又敞開資訊新聞的大門，讓全世界感受分擔中國人的傷痛。泱泱大國，具體而微了。
這般坦蕩蕩的開放無疑是自信的體現了。開放三十年，中國確是創造出了無比的成 績，那是值得所有中國人 —— 及執權者 —— 引以為驕傲的。這個從開放中建立起來的自信，顯然更讓執權者再不懼怕面對人民的傷痛，讓他們敢於降下權力的象徵，為人民的災劫下半旗。
是的，是時候拿出自信來跟人民和解，為六四死難者、為文革浩劫、為歷盡苦難的 中國人民下半旗致哀了！是時候讓中國人民告別苦難、不再哭泣了！
○八既是改革開放三十年，亦是北京奧運年。這本來是標誌百年盛世、中國人站 起來的時刻。可是自年初以來一趟又一趟的天災（春運遇上雪雨）、人禍（山東火車超速出軌、西藏動亂），再加上世紀大地震，則又刻畫出中國人還有多遙遠的路 要走才到達那將安、將樂的小康社會。
中國人民無疑多災多難，當中又以人禍為甚。可幸吸取了文革十年浩劫的慘痛教訓，在三十年前執權者開始一步步為人民鬆綁，釋放出前所未有的生機，改變了河山面貌。經過百年苦難，中國人看到了明天、看到了希望。
然而開放鬆綁的道路是迂迴的。在十九年前的另一個春夏之交，天安門的坦克也將全世界的中國人在悲痛中凝聚了起來。血染的風采可沒有撲滅中國人的希望，拐過 一個小彎，執權者繼續開放向前行。經過廿年的持續發展，哪怕開放之路不是一遍坦途，十三億中國人的生活還是登上了個全新的台階。
是的，過去的三十年是邁向小康的三十年，也是執權者學習開放的三十年。痛定思痛，他們顯然學好了最寶貴的一課 —— 極權鎮壓是萬劫不復的不歸路，只有全面 開放、跟世界併軌，才是富強之路，才是中國的明天。
學好了這最寶貴的開放一課，大地震後，北京執權者沒有像緬甸的獨夫那樣閉關鎖國，置人民的死活於不顧。反之，他們放下由自卑感扭曲而成的面子，接受全世界的關懷與支援，更又敞開資訊新聞的大門，讓全世界感受分擔中國人的傷痛。泱泱大國，具體而微了。
這般坦蕩蕩的開放無疑是自信的體現了。開放三十年，中國確是創造出了無比的成 績，那是值得所有中國人 —— 及執權者 —— 引以為驕傲的。這個從開放中建立起來的自信，顯然更讓執權者再不懼怕面對人民的傷痛，讓他們敢於降下權力的象徵，為人民的災劫下半旗。
是的，是時候拿出自信來跟人民和解，為六四死難者、為文革浩劫、為歷盡苦難的 中國人民下半旗致哀了！是時候讓中國人民告別苦難、不再哭泣了！
Axel Leijonhufvud on New Keynesian Macroeconomics
Axel lamented:
New Keynesians adhere on the whole to the same DSGE modeling technology as RBC macroeconomists but differ in the extent to which they emphasise inflexibilities of prices or other contract terms as sources of short-term adjustment problems in the economy. Except for this stress on inflexibilities this brand of contemporary macroeconomic theory has basically nothing Keynesian about it. (my emphasis)...
The obvious objection to this kind of return to an earlier way of thinking about macroeconomic problems is that the major problems that have had to be confronted in the last twenty or so years have originated in the financial markets - and prices in those markets are anything
but inflexible.
This bit is even better:
But there is also a general theoretical problem that has been festering for decades with very little in the way of attempts to tackle it. Economists talk freely about inflexible or rigid prices all the time, despite the fact that we do not have a shred of theory that could provide criteria for judging whether a particular price is more or less flexible than appropriate to the proper functioning of the larger system. (my emphasis)
Read the whole thing here.
BTW, Axel was at UCLA and one of Professor Steven N S Cheung's colleague.
New Keynesians adhere on the whole to the same DSGE modeling technology as RBC macroeconomists but differ in the extent to which they emphasise inflexibilities of prices or other contract terms as sources of short-term adjustment problems in the economy. Except for this stress on inflexibilities this brand of contemporary macroeconomic theory has basically nothing Keynesian about it. (my emphasis)...
The obvious objection to this kind of return to an earlier way of thinking about macroeconomic problems is that the major problems that have had to be confronted in the last twenty or so years have originated in the financial markets - and prices in those markets are anything
but inflexible.
This bit is even better:
But there is also a general theoretical problem that has been festering for decades with very little in the way of attempts to tackle it. Economists talk freely about inflexible or rigid prices all the time, despite the fact that we do not have a shred of theory that could provide criteria for judging whether a particular price is more or less flexible than appropriate to the proper functioning of the larger system. (my emphasis)
Read the whole thing here.
BTW, Axel was at UCLA and one of Professor Steven N S Cheung's colleague.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Sunday, May 18, 2008
来生我们一起走
孩子快抓紧妈妈的手
去天堂的路太黑了, 妈妈怕你碰了头, 快抓紧妈妈的手
让妈妈陪你走, 妈妈怕天堂的路太黑, 我看不见你的手。
自从倒塌的墙把阳光夺走, 我再也看不见你柔情的眸。
孩子你走吧。 前面的路再也没有忧愁，没有读不完的课本和爸爸的拳头。
你要记住我和爸爸的模样，来生还要一起走。
妈妈, 别担忧，天堂的路有些挤, 有很多同学朋友。
我们说不哭, 哪一个人的妈妈都是我们的妈妈; 哪一个孩子都是妈妈的孩子。
没有我的日子你把爱给活的孩子吧。
妈妈, 你别哭, 泪光照亮不了我们的路, 让我们自己慢慢地走。 妈妈, 我会记住你和爸爸的模样, 记住我们的约定来生一起走。
Source: Nanfang Daily
去天堂的路太黑了, 妈妈怕你碰了头, 快抓紧妈妈的手
让妈妈陪你走, 妈妈怕天堂的路太黑, 我看不见你的手。
自从倒塌的墙把阳光夺走, 我再也看不见你柔情的眸。
孩子你走吧。 前面的路再也没有忧愁，没有读不完的课本和爸爸的拳头。
你要记住我和爸爸的模样，来生还要一起走。
妈妈, 别担忧，天堂的路有些挤, 有很多同学朋友。
我们说不哭, 哪一个人的妈妈都是我们的妈妈; 哪一个孩子都是妈妈的孩子。
没有我的日子你把爱给活的孩子吧。
妈妈, 你别哭, 泪光照亮不了我们的路, 让我们自己慢慢地走。 妈妈, 我会记住你和爸爸的模样, 记住我们的约定来生一起走。
Source: Nanfang Daily
Friday, May 16, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Rocket Scientists on Bubble
The WSJ has an excellent story on three financial economists, all at Princeton and hired by then Department chair Ben Bernanke, who have their research focus on the causes of bubbles. And yes, Hayek is cited. Enjoy it here.
Yeung Wai Hong Weighs in on HK's Proposed Competition Law Part 2
HT once again to Yeung Wai-hong for sharing his thoughts on HK's proposed competition law before they appear in print. Enjoy.
競爭法：濫權的利器
在堆填區出入，十又有一年矣。年來經常性開支之一，是補車胎。警力無疑嚴重過 剩，鐵馬們對來往堆填區的垃圾車、泥頭車沿途灑垃圾污水，丟垃圾、泥頭石塊、 玻璃鐵釘則似乎採取完全放任政策；由是之故，一頭半個月我那四個轆不是給碎玻 璃便是鐵釘拮穿。那天去補胎，赫然有發現。
發現些什麼？補胎鋪掛起過了膠的補胎價目表，的士多少、貨車多少、私家車又是 多少，總共有十幾項之多。各位，這些價目不是個別補胎鋪自己開出的價錢，而是 一個什麼香港膠輪胎公會訂的「公價」，既不可以少收，多取亦不成。我不知道公 會如何處置違規的胎鋪，憑我豐富的補胎經驗告訴大家，無論在香港那個角落，胎 鋪都是按公價收費的，足見公會規限管制價格有法也。
協議定價觸目皆是 我不知道膠輪胎公會這個「公價」是怎樣定出來的，然而不同地點、規模的胎鋪 （大都一同經銷輪胎、電池、車牌等），成本皮費大有不同，卻又劃一收費，那又 何來競爭可言？一旦通過競爭法，這個公價便不難給環頭環尾的胎鋪帶來麻煩，令 他們成為打擊懲治對象了。
按公價收費的當又止於補胎費而已，中文報紙亦然。此外，以我所知，在建築、裝 修業，從紮鐵到泥水等工種亦莫不是以「公價」計酬的。這些行業將來的命運又如何？
油站泵價劃一是「自然迸發」的結果，而不是像補胎或報販那樣，有個公會發施號 令一致行動的。故此協議夾價削弱競爭的嫌疑理應較少，他們可還是逃不過給消委 會拿來作練靶的厄運。若然消委會諸君像鄙人那樣是補胎鋪常客，他們又會對付其 協議定價否？以小人之心度之，相信不會。說到底，對付環頭環尾的胎鋪又豈及打 擊國際石油公司那麼威猛？
證諸報販們新近要求加報價 —— 加兩元至每份八元 —— 遇上的滑鐵盧可見（不 消兩三天便揠旗息鼓撤回要求），協議定價跟是否面對競爭顯然是兩碼子事。成功 將報價劃一並不表示報販們便有「壟斷」市場、壓搾消費者謀取暴利的本事 —— 除了便利店削報價競爭，報販更為免費報紙及網上報紙蠶食客路。只消稍為睜開眼 睛看看現實世界，誓要實行競爭法的干預主義者則不難知道，協議定價實為正常不 過的市場運作，不是什麼十惡不赦的罪行。
到處皆為「強大市場力量」 若然協議定價不便等於「反競爭」或「削弱競爭」，那麼像競爭法及其衍生的衙門 —— 競爭事務委員會 —— 又還有什麼作為可言？這個大家可又不用替執權者擔 心。諮詢文件說這個新衙門將按市場的「實質效果」來檢定是否有壟斷的「濫用行 為」。這些「實質效果」是什麼？官家說一個供應商只消佔了四成以上的市場，便 將被視為「強大市場力量」；不管這個力量是透過協議定價還是巧取豪奪建立起來 的，有這般「實質效果」便足以構成展開調查的「濫用行為」了。
若然競爭法真的像諮詢文件所言以四成市場佔有率為調查與否的分水嶺，那麼一開 張新衙門便可能會忙得不可開交了：香港近兩萬部的士差不多無一不是豐田皇冠、 大家朝夕打交道的自動櫃員機則清一色是NCR產品、九成五以上的電腦都是由微軟 來提供運作平台的。還有，香港無疑有三間發鈔銀行，所有銀紙都來自大埔工業?? 那間印鈔公司。到處「強大市場力量」，新衙門又怎閒得下來？
條文含混打擊經濟 「實質效果」無疑顯示到處都是壟斷的「濫用行為」，在競爭法下，調查與否，制 動權將完全操在官家手裡。諮詢文件是這樣說的：
我們需要強調，企業規模的大小或純粹擁有強大市場力量本身不會成為企業受查的 原因。委員會須有理由相信企業的行為具有嚴重削弱競爭的目的或效果，才可展開 正式調查。這樣應可減低「過分規管」的危險。（諮詢文件第三章第十三段）
俗語有云，不怕官最怕管；執權的愈是叫你不必害怕「過分規管」，你理應愈是要 提防啊！而競爭法衙門那個既主觀又武斷的制動權又確又令人不由不心憂：怎麼樣 才可以叫他們「有理由相信」要調查？怎麼樣才可以教他們「有理由相信」毋須調 查？須知法治的可貴之處，是法律條文明確清晰，讓大家有法可依。這就像在時速 以五十公里為限的路面，哪怕到處鐵馬，只要沒有超速，你便不用擔心要吃官司 了。
競爭法可不是這麼一回事了。你的車速無疑剛好是五十公里，可是為官的「有理由 相信」你有超速的「目的」—— 直路在望，而你作態加油 —— 那便可以調查你 一下了。反之，你的車速儘管高達七十公里，可是為官的「有理由相信」你的目的 不是超速（榮智健便在庭上說過他車子的隔音、避震特佳，他感受不到超速了五、 六十公里），那麼你也不用擔心吃官司。
高懸頭頂的利刀 調查與否純憑為官的主觀判斷是不是「有理由相信」「有嚴重削弱競爭的目的或效 果」，這個含混不清的條文又豈不成為梁愛詩口中懸於每個人頭頂的一口利刀？時 刻提心吊膽會否被查，那又還做得成生意嗎？ 不過，這個任意執法（或不執法）的權力亦非競爭法最要命的地方；更可怕的，是 擁有這個權力的人既非司法體系的法官，亦非經選舉產生、要向選民負責的政治人 物，而將全由行政長官來委任 —— 故此他們只是向特首負責。了無制衡，那又何 來保障這個新衙門不至淪為排斥甚至逼害異己或政治酬庸的工具？說到底這是個標 榜親疏有別的政府啊！
更有甚者，這個獨立王國更將擁有豁免權力，可以酌情讓輪胎公會或報販協會等組 織明目張膽協議定價而不被制裁 —— 條件是證明這樣的協議「產生的經濟效益大 於對競爭造成的損害，或能達致其他重要社會或公共政策目標」（諮詢文件第七 章）
製造貪污機會 莫說什麼叫經濟效益或損害從來都不好界定，哪怕界定得來亦不易客觀地量度，作 出比較。至於什麼叫「社會或公共政策目標」，也就更加抽象了。如斯一來，豁免 與否，那個官字便端的要多少個口可以有多少個口了。準則含混，形同賦予執權者 上下其手的空間，那也就是貪污吃黑的機會了。
就算執權者像包公般秉正不阿，這個既主觀而又武斷的豁免權實無異於經濟學家、 政治學家及律師們的長期飯票。試想想，要證明協議夾價有理，那要聘用多少這種 那種專家作這個那個經濟、政治研究，然而再又找律師籌組其事，向衙門「據理力 爭」？橫看側望，這都將是一場對整體經濟毫無裨益的「零和遊戲」—— 專家、 律師們的收益是商界的開支成本，捨此之外，沒有別的人得到絲毫好處。這又是促 進經濟效益之道嗎？
專業人士、大律師將是競爭法的大贏家。以此為骨幹的公民黨要推行競爭法，不難 理解。可是以草根為取向的民建聯也幫腔支持其事，那可便教人莫名其妙了。他們 可以撈到什麼油水？莫非黨性比人強，凡是助長統治權勢的，他們都必然支持？
競爭法：濫權的利器
在堆填區出入，十又有一年矣。年來經常性開支之一，是補車胎。警力無疑嚴重過 剩，鐵馬們對來往堆填區的垃圾車、泥頭車沿途灑垃圾污水，丟垃圾、泥頭石塊、 玻璃鐵釘則似乎採取完全放任政策；由是之故，一頭半個月我那四個轆不是給碎玻 璃便是鐵釘拮穿。那天去補胎，赫然有發現。
發現些什麼？補胎鋪掛起過了膠的補胎價目表，的士多少、貨車多少、私家車又是 多少，總共有十幾項之多。各位，這些價目不是個別補胎鋪自己開出的價錢，而是 一個什麼香港膠輪胎公會訂的「公價」，既不可以少收，多取亦不成。我不知道公 會如何處置違規的胎鋪，憑我豐富的補胎經驗告訴大家，無論在香港那個角落，胎 鋪都是按公價收費的，足見公會規限管制價格有法也。
協議定價觸目皆是 我不知道膠輪胎公會這個「公價」是怎樣定出來的，然而不同地點、規模的胎鋪 （大都一同經銷輪胎、電池、車牌等），成本皮費大有不同，卻又劃一收費，那又 何來競爭可言？一旦通過競爭法，這個公價便不難給環頭環尾的胎鋪帶來麻煩，令 他們成為打擊懲治對象了。
按公價收費的當又止於補胎費而已，中文報紙亦然。此外，以我所知，在建築、裝 修業，從紮鐵到泥水等工種亦莫不是以「公價」計酬的。這些行業將來的命運又如何？
油站泵價劃一是「自然迸發」的結果，而不是像補胎或報販那樣，有個公會發施號 令一致行動的。故此協議夾價削弱競爭的嫌疑理應較少，他們可還是逃不過給消委 會拿來作練靶的厄運。若然消委會諸君像鄙人那樣是補胎鋪常客，他們又會對付其 協議定價否？以小人之心度之，相信不會。說到底，對付環頭環尾的胎鋪又豈及打 擊國際石油公司那麼威猛？
證諸報販們新近要求加報價 —— 加兩元至每份八元 —— 遇上的滑鐵盧可見（不 消兩三天便揠旗息鼓撤回要求），協議定價跟是否面對競爭顯然是兩碼子事。成功 將報價劃一並不表示報販們便有「壟斷」市場、壓搾消費者謀取暴利的本事 —— 除了便利店削報價競爭，報販更為免費報紙及網上報紙蠶食客路。只消稍為睜開眼 睛看看現實世界，誓要實行競爭法的干預主義者則不難知道，協議定價實為正常不 過的市場運作，不是什麼十惡不赦的罪行。
到處皆為「強大市場力量」 若然協議定價不便等於「反競爭」或「削弱競爭」，那麼像競爭法及其衍生的衙門 —— 競爭事務委員會 —— 又還有什麼作為可言？這個大家可又不用替執權者擔 心。諮詢文件說這個新衙門將按市場的「實質效果」來檢定是否有壟斷的「濫用行 為」。這些「實質效果」是什麼？官家說一個供應商只消佔了四成以上的市場，便 將被視為「強大市場力量」；不管這個力量是透過協議定價還是巧取豪奪建立起來 的，有這般「實質效果」便足以構成展開調查的「濫用行為」了。
若然競爭法真的像諮詢文件所言以四成市場佔有率為調查與否的分水嶺，那麼一開 張新衙門便可能會忙得不可開交了：香港近兩萬部的士差不多無一不是豐田皇冠、 大家朝夕打交道的自動櫃員機則清一色是NCR產品、九成五以上的電腦都是由微軟 來提供運作平台的。還有，香港無疑有三間發鈔銀行，所有銀紙都來自大埔工業?? 那間印鈔公司。到處「強大市場力量」，新衙門又怎閒得下來？
條文含混打擊經濟 「實質效果」無疑顯示到處都是壟斷的「濫用行為」，在競爭法下，調查與否，制 動權將完全操在官家手裡。諮詢文件是這樣說的：
我們需要強調，企業規模的大小或純粹擁有強大市場力量本身不會成為企業受查的 原因。委員會須有理由相信企業的行為具有嚴重削弱競爭的目的或效果，才可展開 正式調查。這樣應可減低「過分規管」的危險。（諮詢文件第三章第十三段）
俗語有云，不怕官最怕管；執權的愈是叫你不必害怕「過分規管」，你理應愈是要 提防啊！而競爭法衙門那個既主觀又武斷的制動權又確又令人不由不心憂：怎麼樣 才可以叫他們「有理由相信」要調查？怎麼樣才可以教他們「有理由相信」毋須調 查？須知法治的可貴之處，是法律條文明確清晰，讓大家有法可依。這就像在時速 以五十公里為限的路面，哪怕到處鐵馬，只要沒有超速，你便不用擔心要吃官司 了。
競爭法可不是這麼一回事了。你的車速無疑剛好是五十公里，可是為官的「有理由 相信」你有超速的「目的」—— 直路在望，而你作態加油 —— 那便可以調查你 一下了。反之，你的車速儘管高達七十公里，可是為官的「有理由相信」你的目的 不是超速（榮智健便在庭上說過他車子的隔音、避震特佳，他感受不到超速了五、 六十公里），那麼你也不用擔心吃官司。
高懸頭頂的利刀 調查與否純憑為官的主觀判斷是不是「有理由相信」「有嚴重削弱競爭的目的或效 果」，這個含混不清的條文又豈不成為梁愛詩口中懸於每個人頭頂的一口利刀？時 刻提心吊膽會否被查，那又還做得成生意嗎？ 不過，這個任意執法（或不執法）的權力亦非競爭法最要命的地方；更可怕的，是 擁有這個權力的人既非司法體系的法官，亦非經選舉產生、要向選民負責的政治人 物，而將全由行政長官來委任 —— 故此他們只是向特首負責。了無制衡，那又何 來保障這個新衙門不至淪為排斥甚至逼害異己或政治酬庸的工具？說到底這是個標 榜親疏有別的政府啊！
更有甚者，這個獨立王國更將擁有豁免權力，可以酌情讓輪胎公會或報販協會等組 織明目張膽協議定價而不被制裁 —— 條件是證明這樣的協議「產生的經濟效益大 於對競爭造成的損害，或能達致其他重要社會或公共政策目標」（諮詢文件第七 章）
製造貪污機會 莫說什麼叫經濟效益或損害從來都不好界定，哪怕界定得來亦不易客觀地量度，作 出比較。至於什麼叫「社會或公共政策目標」，也就更加抽象了。如斯一來，豁免 與否，那個官字便端的要多少個口可以有多少個口了。準則含混，形同賦予執權者 上下其手的空間，那也就是貪污吃黑的機會了。
就算執權者像包公般秉正不阿，這個既主觀而又武斷的豁免權實無異於經濟學家、 政治學家及律師們的長期飯票。試想想，要證明協議夾價有理，那要聘用多少這種 那種專家作這個那個經濟、政治研究，然而再又找律師籌組其事，向衙門「據理力 爭」？橫看側望，這都將是一場對整體經濟毫無裨益的「零和遊戲」—— 專家、 律師們的收益是商界的開支成本，捨此之外，沒有別的人得到絲毫好處。這又是促 進經濟效益之道嗎？
專業人士、大律師將是競爭法的大贏家。以此為骨幹的公民黨要推行競爭法，不難 理解。可是以草根為取向的民建聯也幫腔支持其事，那可便教人莫名其妙了。他們 可以撈到什麼油水？莫非黨性比人強，凡是助長統治權勢的，他們都必然支持？
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
動容
四川災劫後，有人先想到如何發災難財，有人馬上施以援手，人力上的和物資上的。 人性的惡和善在同一刻展現。
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作為父親的我，看到失去孩子的父母所流露出的悲痛，感同身受，心如刀割。 May they rest in peace.
Yeung Wai Hong on Competition Law
Again thanks to the generosity of Yeung Wai-hong, we have the priviledge to publish his forthcoming commentary on competition law to appear in the next issue of the Next Magazine. Enjoy!
競爭法要內置「落日條款」
政府決意在本立法年度通過競爭法。主要政黨從保皇的民建聯，到將會從這個法例 引發的訴訟獲利的法律界人士為骨幹的公民黨皆表態支持；大勢所趨，立法殆成定 論。這般全面干預市場運作 —— 競爭法是跨行業的，並非像電訊條例那樣只針對 一個行業 —— 是否香港之福又作別論。 香港開埠一個多世紀都沒有競爭法，那既無礙經濟的持續繁榮發展，更無損一致公 認的「舉世最自由經濟體」的地位。西諺有云：「既無破損，何苦修補？」（If it ain't broke, why fix it?）
官家強調，差不多所有國家，從始作俑者的美國，還處於資本主義初級階段的中 國，到一直以香港為假想敵的新加坡都有競爭法，要躋身世界先進之列，香港又豈 可無此法？年前政府要開徵「商品及服務稅」（GST），道理之一，亦是這般「年 晚煎堆、人有我有」的謬論。立法與否，取決因素，又豈不是有沒有這個需要？立 法是否切合香港的現實？ 香港不需要競爭法的道理簡單不過：有這般法例的國家和地區，誰有香港般的驕人 經濟成就？誰又能年復一年給這個基金、那個組織評為「舉世最自由經濟體」？這 些國家倒轉頭來向我們學習，取消競爭法還來不及，我們怎麼竟自毀長城干預起市 場來？
不管官家如何好話說盡，保證競爭法條文會防止瑣碎、無謂的訴訟，不辯的事實是 在這法例下成立的「競爭事務委員會」將有權調查所謂「強大市場力量」（政府界 定為40%的市場佔有率）及別的「反競爭」行為，進而有審裁、懲罰這些行為的權 力，也就是增加干預了。要應付調查以至起訴，又豈能沒有法律界人士支援？ 什麼叫競爭？什麼叫「反競爭」或「削弱競爭」？都沒有個客觀的準則 —— 若然 像官家說的，40%市場佔有率為「強大市場力量」，39.9%又如何？在那裡設個界線 、調查與否、起不起訴又豈無武斷成分？既為武斷，委員會的決定也就不一定是公 平、公開、為人接受的了。委員會成員皆由特首委任，而又取向武斷，那又能不令 人擔心這個衙門早晚淪為政治迫害的工具？
由是之故，競爭法應該內置落日條款（sunset provison），以免不管有沒有需 要，這個衙門也膨脹擴張下去。譬如訂明一旦被揭發淪為政治工具，委員會便馬上 解散。此外，倘若時間證明香港市場充滿競爭，譬如持續三年沒有發現任何反競爭 或削弱競爭行為；又或者所謂的反競爭行為根本無傷大雅，譬如牽涉的活動少於經 濟產值（GDP）的1%，委員會亦應自動解散。 經驗證明香港不需要競爭法，若然官家誓死趕時髦，不打緊，就在法例中列出落日 條款 —— 一旦事實驗證沒有這個需要，就給這個衙門來個了斷，免得行政機關多 一個濫權干預的利器！
競爭法要內置「落日條款」
政府決意在本立法年度通過競爭法。主要政黨從保皇的民建聯，到將會從這個法例 引發的訴訟獲利的法律界人士為骨幹的公民黨皆表態支持；大勢所趨，立法殆成定 論。這般全面干預市場運作 —— 競爭法是跨行業的，並非像電訊條例那樣只針對 一個行業 —— 是否香港之福又作別論。 香港開埠一個多世紀都沒有競爭法，那既無礙經濟的持續繁榮發展，更無損一致公 認的「舉世最自由經濟體」的地位。西諺有云：「既無破損，何苦修補？」（If it ain't broke, why fix it?）
官家強調，差不多所有國家，從始作俑者的美國，還處於資本主義初級階段的中 國，到一直以香港為假想敵的新加坡都有競爭法，要躋身世界先進之列，香港又豈 可無此法？年前政府要開徵「商品及服務稅」（GST），道理之一，亦是這般「年 晚煎堆、人有我有」的謬論。立法與否，取決因素，又豈不是有沒有這個需要？立 法是否切合香港的現實？ 香港不需要競爭法的道理簡單不過：有這般法例的國家和地區，誰有香港般的驕人 經濟成就？誰又能年復一年給這個基金、那個組織評為「舉世最自由經濟體」？這 些國家倒轉頭來向我們學習，取消競爭法還來不及，我們怎麼竟自毀長城干預起市 場來？
不管官家如何好話說盡，保證競爭法條文會防止瑣碎、無謂的訴訟，不辯的事實是 在這法例下成立的「競爭事務委員會」將有權調查所謂「強大市場力量」（政府界 定為40%的市場佔有率）及別的「反競爭」行為，進而有審裁、懲罰這些行為的權 力，也就是增加干預了。要應付調查以至起訴，又豈能沒有法律界人士支援？ 什麼叫競爭？什麼叫「反競爭」或「削弱競爭」？都沒有個客觀的準則 —— 若然 像官家說的，40%市場佔有率為「強大市場力量」，39.9%又如何？在那裡設個界線 、調查與否、起不起訴又豈無武斷成分？既為武斷，委員會的決定也就不一定是公 平、公開、為人接受的了。委員會成員皆由特首委任，而又取向武斷，那又能不令 人擔心這個衙門早晚淪為政治迫害的工具？
由是之故，競爭法應該內置落日條款（sunset provison），以免不管有沒有需 要，這個衙門也膨脹擴張下去。譬如訂明一旦被揭發淪為政治工具，委員會便馬上 解散。此外，倘若時間證明香港市場充滿競爭，譬如持續三年沒有發現任何反競爭 或削弱競爭行為；又或者所謂的反競爭行為根本無傷大雅，譬如牽涉的活動少於經 濟產值（GDP）的1%，委員會亦應自動解散。 經驗證明香港不需要競爭法，若然官家誓死趕時髦，不打緊，就在法例中列出落日 條款 —— 一旦事實驗證沒有這個需要，就給這個衙門來個了斷，免得行政機關多 一個濫權干預的利器！
Monday, May 12, 2008
Books, More Books and I Have Started Reading Some of Them
1) I got this at a bookstore in Central, Hong Kong last weekend, although Amazon said it has not been published. I have just finished reading the first chapter and have begun the 2nd, so far so good and it actually cites Armen Alchian in the first chapter. The author is a physics professor at Caltech.
2) A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World.
3) Harry G Johnson: A Life In Economics. And yes, he was the guy where legend has it that he could finish writing a paper during a plane ride over the Atlantic (he held position both at LSE and Chicago). Rumour has it that George Stigler once responded to the question why he did not get as many published papers as Johnson, the guy down the hall, and George's answer was: Yeah but mine are different.
4) The latest edition of Peter Kennedy, an excellent, indispensable reference on the concepts behind econometrics for dummy like me.
2) A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World.
3) Harry G Johnson: A Life In Economics. And yes, he was the guy where legend has it that he could finish writing a paper during a plane ride over the Atlantic (he held position both at LSE and Chicago). Rumour has it that George Stigler once responded to the question why he did not get as many published papers as Johnson, the guy down the hall, and George's answer was: Yeah but mine are different.
4) The latest edition of Peter Kennedy, an excellent, indispensable reference on the concepts behind econometrics for dummy like me.
Books on Antitrust
A good friend of mine, Ming, asked me to recommend a couple of books on the topic of Antitrust. Here's my list:
For Antitrust Law in General
1) Dick Ponser, Antitrust Law, 2nd edition, U of Chicago Press.
2) Herbert Hovenkamp, The Antitrust Enterprise: Principle and Execution, Harvard U Press.
3) Bob Bork, The Antitrust Paradox, Free Press. A bit dated, but still the book to go to for standard reference.
4) Massimo Motto, Competition Policy: Theory and Practice, Cambridge U Press.
5) Keith Hylton, Antitrust Law: Economic Theory and Common Law Evolution, Cambridge U Press.
For Public Choice Perspective
6) Bill Shughart, Antitrust Policy and Interest Group Politics, Quorum Press.
7) Fred McChesney and Bill Shughart edited, The Causes and Consequences of Antitrust: The Public Choice Perspective, U of Chicago Press.
For Austrian Perspective
8) Dominick Armentano, Antitrust and Monopoly, Independent Institute.
For Textbook Treatment
9) Roger Sherman, Market Regulation, Addison Wesley.
10) Roger Blair etal. Antitrust Economics, Oxford U Press.
For Antitrust Law in General
1) Dick Ponser, Antitrust Law, 2nd edition, U of Chicago Press.
2) Herbert Hovenkamp, The Antitrust Enterprise: Principle and Execution, Harvard U Press.
3) Bob Bork, The Antitrust Paradox, Free Press. A bit dated, but still the book to go to for standard reference.
4) Massimo Motto, Competition Policy: Theory and Practice, Cambridge U Press.
5) Keith Hylton, Antitrust Law: Economic Theory and Common Law Evolution, Cambridge U Press.
For Public Choice Perspective
6) Bill Shughart, Antitrust Policy and Interest Group Politics, Quorum Press.
7) Fred McChesney and Bill Shughart edited, The Causes and Consequences of Antitrust: The Public Choice Perspective, U of Chicago Press.
For Austrian Perspective
8) Dominick Armentano, Antitrust and Monopoly, Independent Institute.
For Textbook Treatment
9) Roger Sherman, Market Regulation, Addison Wesley.
10) Roger Blair etal. Antitrust Economics, Oxford U Press.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
萬全之策
電台DJ在節目討論近日多宗私人資料外洩事件，認為目前仍未有對應這問題的萬全之策。
If you are an economist, you will know such 萬全之策 is simply not economical and therefore should not be adopted even if it were available. Interested readers could spell out the missing steps involved in deriving the conclusion in the statement above in the comments section.
If you are an economist, you will know such 萬全之策 is simply not economical and therefore should not be adopted even if it were available. Interested readers could spell out the missing steps involved in deriving the conclusion in the statement above in the comments section.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Debunking 林行止 Part Four, Yeung Wai Hong Version
Thanks to Yeung Wai Hong up at Next Magazine once again for his kind permission to post this forthcoming article to appear in next issue of the magazine. Enjoy.
天地不仁以萬物為芻狗
林行止先生後悔卅多年來「理直氣壯維護資本主義」，他那「後悔」二字縈繞腦 際，揮之不去。那天晚上開車返家途中，收音機播BBC夏莉‧喬拔（Harriett Gilbert）主持的《讀書會》（The Word）節目，忽然給一把聲音吸引，再又令我 想起林先生的「後悔」來。
索姆之役 眾所周知，《讀者會》這個節目跟好些介紹書本的節目大同而小異，有書評、書訊 、作者現身導讀等環節。教我迷的不是節目的內容，而是夏莉‧喬拔的那把圓渾 、沉實發自丹田的聲音。「查找」過了方知，夏莉是科班出身的戲劇演員，寫過不 少劇本、小說，絕非「普通」一個主持也（BBC的眾多主持可以說沒有一個是「普 通」的，不過那是題外話了）。
那個晚上的《讀書會》，她找來了英國作家福斯（Sebastian Faulks 1953-）說他 的暢銷名著《鳥之歌》（Birdsong）（九三年出版以來已賣了超過五百萬本，給翻 成不下十種語言）。吸引我的正是福斯那個晚上的解讀。
《鳥之歌》以一九一六年第一次世界大戰的「索姆之役」（Battle of the Somme）為主軸，穿插蕩氣迴腸的愛情故事 —— 夏莉‧喬拔讀出一個男讀者的來 函，說他結了婚好一段日子，可從未嘗過福斯筆下的愛情滋味，故此他決定離開妻 子去追求夢一般的愛情。
上天不會出手 福斯的愛情故事雖然動人（甚至激發離婚的衝動），但德法兩國差不多一個世紀前 的濠溝戰事才是小說的主題。有讀者問他，《鳥之歌》對戰事的描述細緻寫實，直 是教人嗅到腥風血雨 —— 四個月間一百五十萬名士兵陣亡 —— 然而書名跟戰爭 可風馬牛不相及，那不是無厘頭得很嗎？觸動我神經線的，正是福斯就此番質疑作 的回應。他是這樣說的：
小說確是寫實的，內容沒有絲毫無厘頭（ironic）之處；我無疑可以用《血與肉》 、《血濺泥濘》等字眼為書名；可是我到戰場踏地則發覺，就算在戰事最是慘烈的 時刻，士兵們不難會發覺戰場上依舊有狐狸、田鼠出沒，天空照樣有雀鳥飛翔。這 本小說要探索的是，戰事膠、犧牲了無數性命，為什麼就是沒有人想到要叫停， 結束戰事？終於給我明白了過來的是，不管戰爭如何殘酷，上天是不會出手制止 的。上天對人的愚昧，是了無止境地無動於衷的（There's no limit to nature's indifference to the idiocy of humankind.）。 （各位千萬不要以為鄙人有特異功能，可以一邊開車、一邊聽收音機，而又隻字不 漏過耳不忘。為了「忠於原著」，我上網重溫了福斯此番沉痛的解說。）
上天以萬物為芻狗 「上天對人的愚昧是了無止境地無動於衷」之說，值得花上偌大的氣力查找一番 嗎？值得的，因為我聽到他這麼說的時候，腦際頓然亮起燈泡：那不正是《老子》 說的：「天地不仁，以萬物為芻狗」（第五章、第一句）嗎？
「芻狗」是什麼？根據張默生先生的注釋，那是「用草成的狗，古人取作祭祀用 的；用完以後，隨便拆除，隨便拋棄，絕不愛惜牠。」對天地這個「用過即棄」的 取態，韋利（Arthur Waley 1889-1966）及劉殿爵皆翻作ruthless；林語堂則譯為 unkind；兩者跟福斯的indifference大有距離，讓我來挑，福斯的「無動於衷」可 能跟《老子》的「原意」更為吻合。
明顯不過的是，無論是ruthless、unkind或indifference，其制動權都在上天；這 三者之中，ruthless最是極端，大有為求達到目的，無所不用其極，凶殘無道在所 不惜之意。林語堂的unkind並非這般可怕：上天本來是可以仁慈一點的，不幸卻沒 有。福斯的說法跟林語堂相近，而又進一步淡化上天的角色 —— 上天對世間萬物 的榮衰非但說不上什麼仁慈或不仁慈，更根本便不聞不問，甚至毫不上心。
一切淡然以對 換言之福斯並沒有給上天的本質到底是性善或性惡下個主觀判斷，在他來說，上天 既非凶殘無道，亦非仁愛慈悲；而是一切淡然以對、無動於衷。既然無動於衷，那 麼上天對人世間不公平、不合理、有乖道義的事情又豈會出手干預？
我喜歡福斯這個indifference，他眼中的上天跟張默生對《老子》的解讀，跨越時 空（張著《老子章句新釋》在一九四三年出版），互相輝映。張先生對「天地不 仁」，是有這般說法：
萬物生生死死，各有他自己的本性，有朝生暮死的，有年歲久長的，只要順遂他的 本性就好，你不必替他擔心。譬如鴨子的腿是短的，鶴鳥的腿是長的，這是鴨鶴本 來的天性；你若是妄施仁恩，以為鴨子的腿太短，鶴的太長，不如截下鶴腿的一 段，去安到鴨子的腿上，那就雙方都苦了！
愛之適以害之 故此，本仁愛慈悲之心妄作干預，往往帶來海耶克所說「非原先設想的後果」， 弄巧反拙有之，愛之適以害之亦有之。可是古往今來，有所作為、「先天下之憂而 憂」、救世為懷的人就是不甘於順遂天地萬物的本性、放任自然，讓市場的無形之 手解決問題。用心良善，他們可又知道濟世的第一戒條是「萬勿造成傷害（Do No Harm?）」。
別的不說，「糧食危機」當前，政府不是禁止糧食出口，人為抬高糧價，把問題惡 化；便是管制糧食價格，以致供應萎縮；再不然便是像前聯合國秘書長安南那樣， 鼓吹非洲糧食自給自足。
安南是西非加納人，他手擎前聯合國秘書長這招牌推動非洲自給自足不難會贏得不 少支持，但這是解決問題的辦法嗎？這五、六十年來，像安南般自給自足的設想我 們還見得少嗎？未改革開放之先，中國大陸不便以「自力更生」為基本方針國策 嗎？時至今日，北韓、古巴以至委內瑞拉都不還在標榜類似的政策嗎？其實效如 何，恐怕亦不用多說了。由是之故，當我聽到安南說要搞自給自足，便不期然興起 福斯般的慨歎：上天對人的愚昧確實是了無止境地無動於衷的。
打不死的干預主義 柏林圍牆倒塌、東歐變天，我幻想過「強物情、就己意」的干預主義將從此打入天 牢，永不超生。然而隨海耶克、佛利民等巨擘相繼殞落、人們對計劃經濟造成的 苦痛，顯然已日漸淡忘，故此社會主義又在拉丁美洲般的地方重新抬頭了。當日我 冀盼干預主義從此畫上句號，像江澤民說的，這般一廂情願的想法又豈非too simple, sometimes naive？
古今中外，改造世界的野心從來都是打不死的。就以中國來說吧，那個有使命感的 讀書人不是以張載（1020-1077）的「為天地立心，為生民立命，為往聖繼絕學， 為萬世開太平」為寄志？要幹一番事業的人都有個這個理想，政府的干預之手又還 閒得下來嗎？
聊堪告慰的是，干預主義的禍害儘管像《鳥之歌》的法德戰事那樣沒完沒了，而上 天對人的愚昧，又看似了無止境地無動於衷，以致人不時誤入歧途；可幸上天又賦 予人無時無刻努力改善當前境況的本性，有這個本性引領前行，早晚還是會回到市 場的金光大道的。
天地不仁以萬物為芻狗
林行止先生後悔卅多年來「理直氣壯維護資本主義」，他那「後悔」二字縈繞腦 際，揮之不去。那天晚上開車返家途中，收音機播BBC夏莉‧喬拔（Harriett Gilbert）主持的《讀書會》（The Word）節目，忽然給一把聲音吸引，再又令我 想起林先生的「後悔」來。
索姆之役 眾所周知，《讀者會》這個節目跟好些介紹書本的節目大同而小異，有書評、書訊 、作者現身導讀等環節。教我迷的不是節目的內容，而是夏莉‧喬拔的那把圓渾 、沉實發自丹田的聲音。「查找」過了方知，夏莉是科班出身的戲劇演員，寫過不 少劇本、小說，絕非「普通」一個主持也（BBC的眾多主持可以說沒有一個是「普 通」的，不過那是題外話了）。
那個晚上的《讀書會》，她找來了英國作家福斯（Sebastian Faulks 1953-）說他 的暢銷名著《鳥之歌》（Birdsong）（九三年出版以來已賣了超過五百萬本，給翻 成不下十種語言）。吸引我的正是福斯那個晚上的解讀。
《鳥之歌》以一九一六年第一次世界大戰的「索姆之役」（Battle of the Somme）為主軸，穿插蕩氣迴腸的愛情故事 —— 夏莉‧喬拔讀出一個男讀者的來 函，說他結了婚好一段日子，可從未嘗過福斯筆下的愛情滋味，故此他決定離開妻 子去追求夢一般的愛情。
上天不會出手 福斯的愛情故事雖然動人（甚至激發離婚的衝動），但德法兩國差不多一個世紀前 的濠溝戰事才是小說的主題。有讀者問他，《鳥之歌》對戰事的描述細緻寫實，直 是教人嗅到腥風血雨 —— 四個月間一百五十萬名士兵陣亡 —— 然而書名跟戰爭 可風馬牛不相及，那不是無厘頭得很嗎？觸動我神經線的，正是福斯就此番質疑作 的回應。他是這樣說的：
小說確是寫實的，內容沒有絲毫無厘頭（ironic）之處；我無疑可以用《血與肉》 、《血濺泥濘》等字眼為書名；可是我到戰場踏地則發覺，就算在戰事最是慘烈的 時刻，士兵們不難會發覺戰場上依舊有狐狸、田鼠出沒，天空照樣有雀鳥飛翔。這 本小說要探索的是，戰事膠、犧牲了無數性命，為什麼就是沒有人想到要叫停， 結束戰事？終於給我明白了過來的是，不管戰爭如何殘酷，上天是不會出手制止 的。上天對人的愚昧，是了無止境地無動於衷的（There's no limit to nature's indifference to the idiocy of humankind.）。 （各位千萬不要以為鄙人有特異功能，可以一邊開車、一邊聽收音機，而又隻字不 漏過耳不忘。為了「忠於原著」，我上網重溫了福斯此番沉痛的解說。）
上天以萬物為芻狗 「上天對人的愚昧是了無止境地無動於衷」之說，值得花上偌大的氣力查找一番 嗎？值得的，因為我聽到他這麼說的時候，腦際頓然亮起燈泡：那不正是《老子》 說的：「天地不仁，以萬物為芻狗」（第五章、第一句）嗎？
「芻狗」是什麼？根據張默生先生的注釋，那是「用草成的狗，古人取作祭祀用 的；用完以後，隨便拆除，隨便拋棄，絕不愛惜牠。」對天地這個「用過即棄」的 取態，韋利（Arthur Waley 1889-1966）及劉殿爵皆翻作ruthless；林語堂則譯為 unkind；兩者跟福斯的indifference大有距離，讓我來挑，福斯的「無動於衷」可 能跟《老子》的「原意」更為吻合。
明顯不過的是，無論是ruthless、unkind或indifference，其制動權都在上天；這 三者之中，ruthless最是極端，大有為求達到目的，無所不用其極，凶殘無道在所 不惜之意。林語堂的unkind並非這般可怕：上天本來是可以仁慈一點的，不幸卻沒 有。福斯的說法跟林語堂相近，而又進一步淡化上天的角色 —— 上天對世間萬物 的榮衰非但說不上什麼仁慈或不仁慈，更根本便不聞不問，甚至毫不上心。
一切淡然以對 換言之福斯並沒有給上天的本質到底是性善或性惡下個主觀判斷，在他來說，上天 既非凶殘無道，亦非仁愛慈悲；而是一切淡然以對、無動於衷。既然無動於衷，那 麼上天對人世間不公平、不合理、有乖道義的事情又豈會出手干預？
我喜歡福斯這個indifference，他眼中的上天跟張默生對《老子》的解讀，跨越時 空（張著《老子章句新釋》在一九四三年出版），互相輝映。張先生對「天地不 仁」，是有這般說法：
萬物生生死死，各有他自己的本性，有朝生暮死的，有年歲久長的，只要順遂他的 本性就好，你不必替他擔心。譬如鴨子的腿是短的，鶴鳥的腿是長的，這是鴨鶴本 來的天性；你若是妄施仁恩，以為鴨子的腿太短，鶴的太長，不如截下鶴腿的一 段，去安到鴨子的腿上，那就雙方都苦了！
愛之適以害之 故此，本仁愛慈悲之心妄作干預，往往帶來海耶克所說「非原先設想的後果」， 弄巧反拙有之，愛之適以害之亦有之。可是古往今來，有所作為、「先天下之憂而 憂」、救世為懷的人就是不甘於順遂天地萬物的本性、放任自然，讓市場的無形之 手解決問題。用心良善，他們可又知道濟世的第一戒條是「萬勿造成傷害（Do No Harm?）」。
別的不說，「糧食危機」當前，政府不是禁止糧食出口，人為抬高糧價，把問題惡 化；便是管制糧食價格，以致供應萎縮；再不然便是像前聯合國秘書長安南那樣， 鼓吹非洲糧食自給自足。
安南是西非加納人，他手擎前聯合國秘書長這招牌推動非洲自給自足不難會贏得不 少支持，但這是解決問題的辦法嗎？這五、六十年來，像安南般自給自足的設想我 們還見得少嗎？未改革開放之先，中國大陸不便以「自力更生」為基本方針國策 嗎？時至今日，北韓、古巴以至委內瑞拉都不還在標榜類似的政策嗎？其實效如 何，恐怕亦不用多說了。由是之故，當我聽到安南說要搞自給自足，便不期然興起 福斯般的慨歎：上天對人的愚昧確實是了無止境地無動於衷的。
打不死的干預主義 柏林圍牆倒塌、東歐變天，我幻想過「強物情、就己意」的干預主義將從此打入天 牢，永不超生。然而隨海耶克、佛利民等巨擘相繼殞落、人們對計劃經濟造成的 苦痛，顯然已日漸淡忘，故此社會主義又在拉丁美洲般的地方重新抬頭了。當日我 冀盼干預主義從此畫上句號，像江澤民說的，這般一廂情願的想法又豈非too simple, sometimes naive？
古今中外，改造世界的野心從來都是打不死的。就以中國來說吧，那個有使命感的 讀書人不是以張載（1020-1077）的「為天地立心，為生民立命，為往聖繼絕學， 為萬世開太平」為寄志？要幹一番事業的人都有個這個理想，政府的干預之手又還 閒得下來嗎？
聊堪告慰的是，干預主義的禍害儘管像《鳥之歌》的法德戰事那樣沒完沒了，而上 天對人的愚昧，又看似了無止境地無動於衷，以致人不時誤入歧途；可幸上天又賦 予人無時無刻努力改善當前境況的本性，有這個本性引領前行，早晚還是會回到市 場的金光大道的。
Monday, May 05, 2008
Debunking 林行止 Part Three, the Tyler Cowen Version
In his recent column, Lam lamented the lack of response (? or is it the speed of response) of rice production to the surge in its price. That fact persuaded him to abandon his free market belief as he inferred from that fact that the market in rice failed miserably...
The fact of the matter is, hemmmm, it is not market failure, but state failure which accounted for the lack of (?) supply response to the price surge in rice.
My former teacher wrote in the New York Times:
RISING food prices mean hunger for millions and also political unrest, as has already been seen in Haiti, Egypt and Ivory Coast. Yes, more expensive energy and bad weather are partly at fault, but the real question is why adjustment hasn’t been easier. A big problem is that the world doesn’t have enough trade in foodstuffs.
The damage that trade restrictions cause is probably most evident in the case of rice. Although rice is the major foodstuff for about half of the world, it is highly protected and regulated. (My emphasis) Only about 5 to 7 percent of the world’s rice production is traded across borders; that’s unusually low for an agricultural commodity.
So when the price goes up — indeed, many varieties of rice have roughly doubled in price since 2007 — this highly segmented market means that the trade in rice doesn’t flow to the places of highest demand.
Poor rice yields are not the major problem. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that global rice production increased by 1 percent last year and says that it is expected to increase 1.8 percent this year. That’s not impressive, but it shouldn’t cause starvation.
Read the whole thing here.
The fact of the matter is, hemmmm, it is not market failure, but state failure which accounted for the lack of (?) supply response to the price surge in rice.
My former teacher wrote in the New York Times:
RISING food prices mean hunger for millions and also political unrest, as has already been seen in Haiti, Egypt and Ivory Coast. Yes, more expensive energy and bad weather are partly at fault, but the real question is why adjustment hasn’t been easier. A big problem is that the world doesn’t have enough trade in foodstuffs.
The damage that trade restrictions cause is probably most evident in the case of rice. Although rice is the major foodstuff for about half of the world, it is highly protected and regulated. (My emphasis) Only about 5 to 7 percent of the world’s rice production is traded across borders; that’s unusually low for an agricultural commodity.
So when the price goes up — indeed, many varieties of rice have roughly doubled in price since 2007 — this highly segmented market means that the trade in rice doesn’t flow to the places of highest demand.
Poor rice yields are not the major problem. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that global rice production increased by 1 percent last year and says that it is expected to increase 1.8 percent this year. That’s not impressive, but it shouldn’t cause starvation.
Read the whole thing here.
Friday, May 02, 2008
Debunking 林行止 Part Two (by Yeung Wai Hong)
With kind permission from Mr Yeung Wai Hong, his forthcoming article in the next issue of Next Magazine is posted below, enjoy:
林行止先生新近的一篇文章令我既驚愕亦失落，相信好些《信報》及林先生的長期 忠實讀者都同樣感到震撼。教我久久不能釋懷的是林先生這句說話：
寫了三十多年政經評論，筆者對過去理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度頗生悔意，因為 看到了太多不公平手段和欺詐性活動，而一些本以為放諸四海皆准的理論則經不起 現實考驗（比如價高必然使產量增加促致價格回順）……。筆者真的希望中國不要 徹底走資，社會主義的確能夠維繫社會公平，中國若能定出一套「向錢看」與社會 公平間平衡發展的政策，中國的崛起才對提高人類福祉有積極意義！（《信報》二 ○○八年四月廿八日）
體現勇氣的肺腑之言 林先生這肺腑之言令我不期然反思：會否有一天我也有他今天的悔意？果如此，我 又會否像他那樣以社會主義為出路？到了那一天，我又會否有林先生打倒昨日之我 的勇氣？有這個勇氣，又能否像林先生那樣向讀者坦誠交代？
深受困擾，回首思索我是怎麼樣「理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度」起來的。話說讀 過經濟學的入門課，微觀、宏觀過後，再又硬啃過什麼經濟發展論、公共理財、經 濟思想史，可還是摸不透經濟學到底是什麼的一門學問，更遑論維護資本主義了 （我是「解放」後出生的，礙於基因結構，要理直氣壯地維護共產主義制度亦無從 啊）。
「極端自由市場信徒」有這個流行說法：「一切通常都是由蘭德開始的（It usually begins with Ayn Rand）」。我個人的經驗亦是如此。我有兩個蘭德迷的 同學，茶餘飯後，不管什麼話題，我每一開口便給他們異口同聲、不屑地駁斥： 「蘭德說過了。」
不勝其擾，拿了他們朝夕掛在唇邊的《巨人聳肩》（Atlas Shrugged）來看，一發 不可收拾 —— 我啃掉蘭德所有的小說，對資本主義制度造福人群從此深信不疑 —— 這個信念至今沒有動搖。不過蘭德也只是個開始而已，我要是對市場還是有 點認識的話，那是拜海耶克及張五常之賜。
蘭德的桃花源 早前我在此跟大家交代過了，《巨人聳肩》是個桃花源的故事，說的是一班實業家 、銀行家、經濟學家、作曲家、哲學家……不堪官僚的干預壓迫，拒絕讓偽善的官 僚寄生蟲吸血，齊齊「罷工」，終致令整個社會停頓下來。
這些為世界創造財富、藝術、理念的巨人建起了一個沒有官僚、沒有政府、沒有不 勞而獲、沒有抽稅均分財富的世外桃源。這個桃源裡是個赤裸裸資本主義社會的縮 影，一切活動都是你情我願的交易，所有行為皆以個人利益為本位；自私非但絕不 醜惡，反而是最崇高的情操（蘭德的一本文集以The Virtue of Selfishness為 名）。
蘭德狠批官僚假公平之名干預、吸血自肥，讓我�饇g了好一陣子。及後讀了海耶克 的《自由的憲章》才恍然大悟，蘭德的桃花源跟馬克思「各盡其能、各取所需」的 地上天堂一丘之貉而已；兩者的終極目標雖則南轅北轍 —— 在蘭德的理想國裡人 人自私自利而社會和諧富足，在社會主義的烏托邦則人人無私奉獻而一切天天向上 —— 可是其出發點則如一，那就是嚴復說的「強物情，就己意」；無論是蘭德或 馬克思都蔑視生活現實，追求他們的理想則必然不擇手段，踐踏扭曲人性，竊瀆人 的尊嚴。
科學實證不是喊口號 當我猶為蘭德迷倒之際，張五常給我當頭棒喝：「你口中的政府萬惡不赦，為什麼 自有人類歷史以來普天之下便有政府的存在？」這個問題醍壺灌頂，令我體認到要 了解現象、加以解釋才是提升認知的科學方法；否則喊喊口號，又豈有助於解決問 題？到頭來要改善眼前境況，人類便得要解決不斷湧現的問題，是不是？
從解釋現象入手，則更加鞏固我對資本主義制度的擁護。香港了無天然資源，大家 都是中國人，香港人的物質條件勝過大陸多矣 —— 而又活得更有尊嚴 —— 那當 然是得體制之利了。同樣，歐美的生活條件亦顯非一切要排隊配給的東歐計劃經濟 所能望其項背。在這些鐵一般的事實面前，毋須多費唇舌，拿出平常心來，便不難 認定只有市場才能真正造福人群。然而市場到底又是什麼？為什麼科學地調撥資源 、計劃經濟，其效果竟又及不上看似完全無人駕駛的市場？
市場是個發現探索的過程 海耶克給市場冠以不少稱號，超級電腦一也；發現、探索的過程二也。總的說來， 他告訴我市場不是像書本上說的，是個按邊際功能支配資源的過程。在他來說，以 市場運作為計數是既矮化亦醜化了市場 —— 若然可以這樣機械化地支配資源，任 何懂得計數的工程師都可以把資源發揮得淋漓盡致，讓所有國家都安樂富足，那又 豈還有貧富懸殊的問題？事實上當蘇聯和中國還站在市場經濟的對立面時，也都是 由工程師治國的。不幸「理性」的計劃經濟非但沒有為人民謀幸福，反而導致飢孚 遍野、生靈塗炭。
若然不是個理性、機械地支配資源的過程，那麼市場又是什麼？在海耶克來說，市 場不是個地方，亦不是個會社組織，而是個讓人們交換資訊的過程。這跟生產、消 費等民生經濟活動有何相干？海耶克言人所未言之處，是指出一切經濟活動都是以 資訊為基礎的：每個人對自身處境的掌握都至為獨特，沒有兩個人知道的東西是完 全一樣的；而一旦境況起了變化，每個人的反應亦往往有別於人；而市場也者，便 是個交換獨特資訊的過程。
資訊的鴻溝 海耶克這個資訊論看似平平無奇，然而用心善良、救世為懷的人則又往往體味不透 箇中真諦，而要政府干預這、干預那以致引發這種、那種「非原先設想的後果」 （unintended consequences）—— 設立最低工資對付貧富懸殊，導致失業漲升， 衍生福利開支、形成依賴福利過日的沉淪一族；給印尼海嘯災民提供先進漁船，捕 獵過度，以致魚穫下跌。好心做壞事，因為主觀意願跟具體事實之間，有一道干預 主義者跨越不來的資訊鴻溝，內裡暗藏無窮無盡單憑個別人的識見設想不來的「意 外」—— 每個人掌握獨特的資訊，這些資訊不為人知，當然是在為政者的設想之 外了。
海耶克從這個資訊鴻溝再作引伸 —— 所有「強物情、就己意」的干預，都必然引 發出其不意、「非原先設想的後果」，故此執權者也就有必要力求克制不作干預 —— 這又不止於利來利往的買賣活動而已。 海耶克認為社會體制、倫理關係是長期演變的結果，都累積了前人無窮的智慧。要 是對眼底看似不公平、不合理的現象沒有個透徹的認識便妄作干預，其後果往往不 堪想像 —— 美國給未婚媽媽提供救援，用心是保護小孩子，結果則導致離婚率激 增、破碎家庭的子女欠缺母愛，濫藥嚴重、教育水平下降。若然如此，任何干預固 然要慎始，不可輕舉莽動；更萬萬不可輕言革命：當下雖有盛世中華之稱，共產革 命毀滅說不出的累積智慧；這般浩劫又豈是三十年開放改革便平反得過來的？
捨市場經濟別無選擇
故此，我無藥可救地擁護資本主義體制，並不單純是因為市場經濟打造了有目共睹 的物質繁榮。海耶克說過了，市場經濟必定要以個人（而不是社會、國家）為本， 唯其如此，資源效益才能全面發揮和提升。政府一旦插手干預市場，首當其衝的， 必定是以個人為本的價值觀，故此也就必然打擊人權、自由。沒有以武力為後盾的 稅吏，便不可能以累進稅制、均分財富。稅吏、官僚手握大權，濫權腐敗的日子又 還會遠嗎？故此不管用心如何良善，一切干預都勢必威脅人權自由，都必定侵犯人 的尊嚴。
我不以為建基於私有產權、自由市場的資本主義是個至善至美的體制。我們生活在 現實世界，而不是在桃花源裡，恐怕是沒有個令人類認同的完美的制度的了。到了 我這把年紀，我認同的是戴卓爾夫人說的TINA：捨市場經濟之外，別無選擇 —— There is no alternative。這不是喊口號，而是張五常的科學實證得出的結 果。
圖字：回首前程，我「理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度」，是拜蘭德、海耶克及張五 常這三張皇牌之賜。
林行止先生新近的一篇文章令我既驚愕亦失落，相信好些《信報》及林先生的長期 忠實讀者都同樣感到震撼。教我久久不能釋懷的是林先生這句說話：
寫了三十多年政經評論，筆者對過去理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度頗生悔意，因為 看到了太多不公平手段和欺詐性活動，而一些本以為放諸四海皆准的理論則經不起 現實考驗（比如價高必然使產量增加促致價格回順）……。筆者真的希望中國不要 徹底走資，社會主義的確能夠維繫社會公平，中國若能定出一套「向錢看」與社會 公平間平衡發展的政策，中國的崛起才對提高人類福祉有積極意義！（《信報》二 ○○八年四月廿八日）
體現勇氣的肺腑之言 林先生這肺腑之言令我不期然反思：會否有一天我也有他今天的悔意？果如此，我 又會否像他那樣以社會主義為出路？到了那一天，我又會否有林先生打倒昨日之我 的勇氣？有這個勇氣，又能否像林先生那樣向讀者坦誠交代？
深受困擾，回首思索我是怎麼樣「理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度」起來的。話說讀 過經濟學的入門課，微觀、宏觀過後，再又硬啃過什麼經濟發展論、公共理財、經 濟思想史，可還是摸不透經濟學到底是什麼的一門學問，更遑論維護資本主義了 （我是「解放」後出生的，礙於基因結構，要理直氣壯地維護共產主義制度亦無從 啊）。
「極端自由市場信徒」有這個流行說法：「一切通常都是由蘭德開始的（It usually begins with Ayn Rand）」。我個人的經驗亦是如此。我有兩個蘭德迷的 同學，茶餘飯後，不管什麼話題，我每一開口便給他們異口同聲、不屑地駁斥： 「蘭德說過了。」
不勝其擾，拿了他們朝夕掛在唇邊的《巨人聳肩》（Atlas Shrugged）來看，一發 不可收拾 —— 我啃掉蘭德所有的小說，對資本主義制度造福人群從此深信不疑 —— 這個信念至今沒有動搖。不過蘭德也只是個開始而已，我要是對市場還是有 點認識的話，那是拜海耶克及張五常之賜。
蘭德的桃花源 早前我在此跟大家交代過了，《巨人聳肩》是個桃花源的故事，說的是一班實業家 、銀行家、經濟學家、作曲家、哲學家……不堪官僚的干預壓迫，拒絕讓偽善的官 僚寄生蟲吸血，齊齊「罷工」，終致令整個社會停頓下來。
這些為世界創造財富、藝術、理念的巨人建起了一個沒有官僚、沒有政府、沒有不 勞而獲、沒有抽稅均分財富的世外桃源。這個桃源裡是個赤裸裸資本主義社會的縮 影，一切活動都是你情我願的交易，所有行為皆以個人利益為本位；自私非但絕不 醜惡，反而是最崇高的情操（蘭德的一本文集以The Virtue of Selfishness為 名）。
蘭德狠批官僚假公平之名干預、吸血自肥，讓我�饇g了好一陣子。及後讀了海耶克 的《自由的憲章》才恍然大悟，蘭德的桃花源跟馬克思「各盡其能、各取所需」的 地上天堂一丘之貉而已；兩者的終極目標雖則南轅北轍 —— 在蘭德的理想國裡人 人自私自利而社會和諧富足，在社會主義的烏托邦則人人無私奉獻而一切天天向上 —— 可是其出發點則如一，那就是嚴復說的「強物情，就己意」；無論是蘭德或 馬克思都蔑視生活現實，追求他們的理想則必然不擇手段，踐踏扭曲人性，竊瀆人 的尊嚴。
科學實證不是喊口號 當我猶為蘭德迷倒之際，張五常給我當頭棒喝：「你口中的政府萬惡不赦，為什麼 自有人類歷史以來普天之下便有政府的存在？」這個問題醍壺灌頂，令我體認到要 了解現象、加以解釋才是提升認知的科學方法；否則喊喊口號，又豈有助於解決問 題？到頭來要改善眼前境況，人類便得要解決不斷湧現的問題，是不是？
從解釋現象入手，則更加鞏固我對資本主義制度的擁護。香港了無天然資源，大家 都是中國人，香港人的物質條件勝過大陸多矣 —— 而又活得更有尊嚴 —— 那當 然是得體制之利了。同樣，歐美的生活條件亦顯非一切要排隊配給的東歐計劃經濟 所能望其項背。在這些鐵一般的事實面前，毋須多費唇舌，拿出平常心來，便不難 認定只有市場才能真正造福人群。然而市場到底又是什麼？為什麼科學地調撥資源 、計劃經濟，其效果竟又及不上看似完全無人駕駛的市場？
市場是個發現探索的過程 海耶克給市場冠以不少稱號，超級電腦一也；發現、探索的過程二也。總的說來， 他告訴我市場不是像書本上說的，是個按邊際功能支配資源的過程。在他來說，以 市場運作為計數是既矮化亦醜化了市場 —— 若然可以這樣機械化地支配資源，任 何懂得計數的工程師都可以把資源發揮得淋漓盡致，讓所有國家都安樂富足，那又 豈還有貧富懸殊的問題？事實上當蘇聯和中國還站在市場經濟的對立面時，也都是 由工程師治國的。不幸「理性」的計劃經濟非但沒有為人民謀幸福，反而導致飢孚 遍野、生靈塗炭。
若然不是個理性、機械地支配資源的過程，那麼市場又是什麼？在海耶克來說，市 場不是個地方，亦不是個會社組織，而是個讓人們交換資訊的過程。這跟生產、消 費等民生經濟活動有何相干？海耶克言人所未言之處，是指出一切經濟活動都是以 資訊為基礎的：每個人對自身處境的掌握都至為獨特，沒有兩個人知道的東西是完 全一樣的；而一旦境況起了變化，每個人的反應亦往往有別於人；而市場也者，便 是個交換獨特資訊的過程。
資訊的鴻溝 海耶克這個資訊論看似平平無奇，然而用心善良、救世為懷的人則又往往體味不透 箇中真諦，而要政府干預這、干預那以致引發這種、那種「非原先設想的後果」 （unintended consequences）—— 設立最低工資對付貧富懸殊，導致失業漲升， 衍生福利開支、形成依賴福利過日的沉淪一族；給印尼海嘯災民提供先進漁船，捕 獵過度，以致魚穫下跌。好心做壞事，因為主觀意願跟具體事實之間，有一道干預 主義者跨越不來的資訊鴻溝，內裡暗藏無窮無盡單憑個別人的識見設想不來的「意 外」—— 每個人掌握獨特的資訊，這些資訊不為人知，當然是在為政者的設想之 外了。
海耶克從這個資訊鴻溝再作引伸 —— 所有「強物情、就己意」的干預，都必然引 發出其不意、「非原先設想的後果」，故此執權者也就有必要力求克制不作干預 —— 這又不止於利來利往的買賣活動而已。 海耶克認為社會體制、倫理關係是長期演變的結果，都累積了前人無窮的智慧。要 是對眼底看似不公平、不合理的現象沒有個透徹的認識便妄作干預，其後果往往不 堪想像 —— 美國給未婚媽媽提供救援，用心是保護小孩子，結果則導致離婚率激 增、破碎家庭的子女欠缺母愛，濫藥嚴重、教育水平下降。若然如此，任何干預固 然要慎始，不可輕舉莽動；更萬萬不可輕言革命：當下雖有盛世中華之稱，共產革 命毀滅說不出的累積智慧；這般浩劫又豈是三十年開放改革便平反得過來的？
捨市場經濟別無選擇
故此，我無藥可救地擁護資本主義體制，並不單純是因為市場經濟打造了有目共睹 的物質繁榮。海耶克說過了，市場經濟必定要以個人（而不是社會、國家）為本， 唯其如此，資源效益才能全面發揮和提升。政府一旦插手干預市場，首當其衝的， 必定是以個人為本的價值觀，故此也就必然打擊人權、自由。沒有以武力為後盾的 稅吏，便不可能以累進稅制、均分財富。稅吏、官僚手握大權，濫權腐敗的日子又 還會遠嗎？故此不管用心如何良善，一切干預都勢必威脅人權自由，都必定侵犯人 的尊嚴。
我不以為建基於私有產權、自由市場的資本主義是個至善至美的體制。我們生活在 現實世界，而不是在桃花源裡，恐怕是沒有個令人類認同的完美的制度的了。到了 我這把年紀，我認同的是戴卓爾夫人說的TINA：捨市場經濟之外，別無選擇 —— There is no alternative。這不是喊口號，而是張五常的科學實證得出的結 果。
圖字：回首前程，我「理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度」，是拜蘭德、海耶克及張五 常這三張皇牌之賜。
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Debunking 林行止 Part One
Lam's claim: 社會主義的確能夠維繫社會公平
Does he mean equal chances of being politically oppressed, equal chances of being starved to death (remember the great leap forward)...? What kind of equality he is talking about here?
No kidding, I am not an expert of Chinese politics, but read this short introduction to communism if you want to know the horrors of implementing socialist "heaven on earth".
Take China's rural socialist experiment as an example. The use of so called production team as a unit of production with pay unrelated to effort (instead, team members are assigned workpoints according to some arbitrary "equitable" criteria) turns out to be a big policy disaster and results in sharp fall in arigultural output.
Who suffers in the end, THE MASSES, not the POLITICAL ELITES on top. Now is that FAIR?
What about corruption, time wasted spending in line to get daily necessities(and mind you only ordinary folks, that means people like YOU AND ME, again not the POLITICAL ELITES are the ones who have to line up for stuff)....Is that fair Mr Lam?
Does he mean equal chances of being politically oppressed, equal chances of being starved to death (remember the great leap forward)...? What kind of equality he is talking about here?
No kidding, I am not an expert of Chinese politics, but read this short introduction to communism if you want to know the horrors of implementing socialist "heaven on earth".
Take China's rural socialist experiment as an example. The use of so called production team as a unit of production with pay unrelated to effort (instead, team members are assigned workpoints according to some arbitrary "equitable" criteria) turns out to be a big policy disaster and results in sharp fall in arigultural output.
Who suffers in the end, THE MASSES, not the POLITICAL ELITES on top. Now is that FAIR?
What about corruption, time wasted spending in line to get daily necessities(and mind you only ordinary folks, that means people like YOU AND ME, again not the POLITICAL ELITES are the ones who have to line up for stuff)....Is that fair Mr Lam?
Monday, April 28, 2008
Beginning of the End
寫了三十多年政經評論，筆者對過去理直氣壯地維護資本主義制度頗生悔意，因為看到了太多不公平手段和欺詐性活動 ，而一些本以為放諸四海而皆准的理論則經不起現實考驗（比如價高必然使產量增加促致價格回順）……。筆者真的希望中國不要徹底走資，社會主義的確能夠維繫社會公平，中國若能定出一套在「向錢看」與社會公平間平衡發展的政策，中國的崛起才對提高人類福祉有積極意義！
This is from Hong Kong Economic Journal's famous columnist 林行止 .
Read the whole thing here. More comments later.
Social Justice? Are you kidding me, Mr Lam? There IS NOT an identity called society which makes economic decisions, and I thought we are over that idea DECADES AGO!
This is from Hong Kong Economic Journal's famous columnist 林行止 .
Read the whole thing here. More comments later.
Social Justice? Are you kidding me, Mr Lam? There IS NOT an identity called society which makes economic decisions, and I thought we are over that idea DECADES AGO!
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Armen Alchian and Hong Kong Judges' Economic Training
Any Alchian student or fan knows that Armen also had a heavy influence in the training of judges and lawyers through the George Mason Law and Economics Center Program started by Henry Manne. In an important antitrust policy speech, former FTC Chairman Timothy Muris articulates a sentiment I’ve heard repeatedly from those who went through the program or watched Armen teach:
Armen Alchian was unexcelled in teaching economics to lawyers. He often presented economics socratically - a technique familiar to lawyers. For years Armen was one of the most popular instructors in Henry Manne’s programs for teaching economics to lawyers. In short courses, he taught literally hundreds of federal judges and law professors.
Armen Alchian was unexcelled in teaching economics to lawyers. He often presented economics socratically - a technique familiar to lawyers. For years Armen was one of the most popular instructors in Henry Manne’s programs for teaching economics to lawyers. In short courses, he taught literally hundreds of federal judges and law professors.
That's from Josh Wright, a student of both Ben Klein and Armen and now at George Mason University Law School himself on Armen's 94th birthday. Read more here.
Now that HK is contemplating to have a competition law, I am really curious about the ability of HK judges ability in deciding cases involving some serious econometrics, price theory, game theory and what not. That makes me worried.
May be HK should considering hiring someone like Armen, Demsetz or Josh to offer some economics crashcourses for the local judges?
Futility of Granting More Power to the Fed
Although plenty of questions are being asked about Secretary Paulson's plan granting sweeping new powers to the Federal Reserve, a crucial one is in danger of being overlooked. That question is: What use has the Fed made of past extensions of its powers? Is it reasonable, given the Fed's record, to expect it to use new powers responsibly?
The answer ought to give plan supporters second thoughts. It is that, whenever the Fed acquired new powers in the past, it abused them, often with dire consequences for the U.S. economy.
More here from George Selgin at UGA.
The answer ought to give plan supporters second thoughts. It is that, whenever the Fed acquired new powers in the past, it abused them, often with dire consequences for the U.S. economy.
More here from George Selgin at UGA.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
男人四十
心情近日有点灰。 為人也為事。
楊社長懷康說，這是中年危機 (mid-life crisis)。
身邊年過四十的朋友或家人，事業的發展都不怎麽樣。 They simply get stuck. And I am not even talking about people with minimal education. 他/她們都是留學英美的碩士/博士，讀的也非什麽雜牌大學, 而是在 U of Chicago, HKUST, Purdue University, Indiana University at Bloomington, and University of Minnesota. 情况就如大樂在<<四代香港人>>說的那樣。
How did that happen? 如何釋懷？
As far as I know, most of them simply devote their attention elsewhere instead of their career, like their children and other hobbies or interests. 但我知道他/她們仍不甘心。
就此胸懷 fustration and unfulfiled dream 過一生？
難怪在洋人的喪礼或墓碑上，都總有這樣的一句： Rest in Peace。
這是因為太多人含憾而終？！
楊社長懷康說，這是中年危機 (mid-life crisis)。
身邊年過四十的朋友或家人，事業的發展都不怎麽樣。 They simply get stuck. And I am not even talking about people with minimal education. 他/她們都是留學英美的碩士/博士，讀的也非什麽雜牌大學, 而是在 U of Chicago, HKUST, Purdue University, Indiana University at Bloomington, and University of Minnesota. 情况就如大樂在<<四代香港人>>說的那樣。
How did that happen? 如何釋懷？
As far as I know, most of them simply devote their attention elsewhere instead of their career, like their children and other hobbies or interests. 但我知道他/她們仍不甘心。
就此胸懷 fustration and unfulfiled dream 過一生？
難怪在洋人的喪礼或墓碑上，都總有這樣的一句： Rest in Peace。
這是因為太多人含憾而終？！
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Best Line I Have Read Today
In general, I think that the economy's fate hinges on its ability to adapt to changes in relative prices. If there are few large shocks, then full employment will not be disturbed. With large shocks, then people need to respond to incentives to exit some occupations and industries in order to enter others.
Here's more from Arnold Kling.
My hunch is that with large shocks to the economy, people start to panic as uncertainty looms. Instead of figuring out ways to respond to massive shifts in relative prices (that's what large shocks mean to me anyway), people's brain is hardwired (a legacy of our tribal past as Hayek has argued in Fatal Conceit) to immediately seek help from some saviour, God may be, government definitely (as a surrogate God?). And that's what makes Keynesian economics so appealing I think.
Here's more from Arnold Kling.
My hunch is that with large shocks to the economy, people start to panic as uncertainty looms. Instead of figuring out ways to respond to massive shifts in relative prices (that's what large shocks mean to me anyway), people's brain is hardwired (a legacy of our tribal past as Hayek has argued in Fatal Conceit) to immediately seek help from some saviour, God may be, government definitely (as a surrogate God?). And that's what makes Keynesian economics so appealing I think.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Recent Books on Spontaneous Order
A reader asked me to recommend a couple of recent books on spontaneous order. To me, the term spontaneous order is a way to conceptualize the interaction of people in the market place according to some ground rules. If you accept that definition, all books explaining how market works are also books on the topic of spontaneous order.
Some of my recommendations are (they are all written for non-specialists):
1) Origin of Wealth
2) The Mind of the Market
3) Basic Economics
4) Economics Facts and Fallacies
5) Freedomomics
6) The Wisdom of Crowds
Some of my recommendations are (they are all written for non-specialists):
1) Origin of Wealth
2) The Mind of the Market
3) Basic Economics
4) Economics Facts and Fallacies
5) Freedomomics
6) The Wisdom of Crowds
Monday, April 14, 2008
Randy
“We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand.”—Randy Pausch
After you have done doing that, get his book and read it, the book is entitled The Last Lecture.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
做好人
楊社長懷康傳來鄭板橋家書一封，其中一句很有意思：
夫讀書中舉中進士作官，此是小事，第一要明理做個好人。
The above line in English: Now to be a scholar and be a college graduate or a doctor is a small thing; the important thing is to be reasonable and be a good man (林語堂譯)
Come to think of it, how many parents in HK would rather have their kids become successful at school and at work than simply be a good man ?
夫讀書中舉中進士作官，此是小事，第一要明理做個好人。
The above line in English: Now to be a scholar and be a college graduate or a doctor is a small thing; the important thing is to be reasonable and be a good man (林語堂譯)
Come to think of it, how many parents in HK would rather have their kids become successful at school and at work than simply be a good man ?
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
My Sincere Thanks to WWW
While searching the net for some info, I stumble across a bio page of my former roommate/class mate back at graduate school. My old friend Mike Giberson, a fellow Masonomist. My previous impression was that Mike was a guy with few words.
Now not only is he in the consulting business, he is a contributor to two blogs on economics as well. Check him out for yourself here. BTW, he did his thesis under Nobel Lauerate Vernon Smith.
Now not only is he in the consulting business, he is a contributor to two blogs on economics as well. Check him out for yourself here. BTW, he did his thesis under Nobel Lauerate Vernon Smith.
Economic Growth From a Smithian Lens
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Byron, The Global Economy Needs You
"Macroeconomics has taken a turn towards theory in the last 10-15 years. Most young macroeconomists are more comfortable with proving theorems than with getting their hands on any data or speculating on current events."
Read the whole thing here.
Byron, where are you just when the global economy needs you most?
Read the whole thing here.
Byron, where are you just when the global economy needs you most?
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Transformers, They Are Cool
Lately, my five-year old son and I have started collecting figures of different robots which have appeared in the movie Transformers. First, we learn about who are the good guys (Autobots) and the bad guys (Decepticons), then we learn about the different heros within the good guys camp and follow that up with learning the different characters in the bad guys camp...and finally we are after those hard to get figures like Target and Wal-mart exclusives.
Check out the picture above, isn't it cool? That's Stealth Bumblebee in robot mode, see more for yourself here. It is due out soon, stay tuned.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Clueless About the Unfolding Financial Market Mess? No Worries You are Not Alone
In an excellent NYT story here, former Fed Vice-chairman and currently professor of economics at Princeton Alan Blinder said;
Mr. Blinder, the former Fed vice chairman, holds a doctorate in economics from M.I.T. but says he has only a “modest understanding” of complex derivatives. “I know the basic understanding of how they work,” he said, “but if you presented me with one and asked me to put a market value on it, I’d be guessing.”
My responses:
1. If even sophisticated traders don't know what they are buying and selling, monitoring costs go up the roof and the monitors of these traders could do nothing even if they are well incentivized to do their job. The whole internal risk management function of the firm falls apart.
2. You see pages and pages of stock market recommendations or comments in the papers' financial section, are writers of those pieces smarter than Blinder and the traders and know exactly what's going on? If they are clueless, why readers would want to read junk stories then? Is it related to human nature, a relic of our tribal past, where one always look for wisdom from a wise-man in times of panic (even if the wiseman also has no clue on what's going on)?
Mr. Blinder, the former Fed vice chairman, holds a doctorate in economics from M.I.T. but says he has only a “modest understanding” of complex derivatives. “I know the basic understanding of how they work,” he said, “but if you presented me with one and asked me to put a market value on it, I’d be guessing.”
My responses:
1. If even sophisticated traders don't know what they are buying and selling, monitoring costs go up the roof and the monitors of these traders could do nothing even if they are well incentivized to do their job. The whole internal risk management function of the firm falls apart.
2. You see pages and pages of stock market recommendations or comments in the papers' financial section, are writers of those pieces smarter than Blinder and the traders and know exactly what's going on? If they are clueless, why readers would want to read junk stories then? Is it related to human nature, a relic of our tribal past, where one always look for wisdom from a wise-man in times of panic (even if the wiseman also has no clue on what's going on)?
Hokkaido
My family went to Hokkaido for a few days. We were staying at the Club Med there. One thing my wife and I both notice is the substantial improvement in Japanese people's ability to communicate in English.
That was something we did not feel back in our trip to Osaka in 2000.
What's going on?
Has the wave of globalization finally pushed Japanese people to brush up their English language skills or is it a case of sample bias, in other words, we just happen to meet a bunch of Japanese who are good in English. My wife and I tend to believe that the second answer is more plausible.
BTW, the picture above is the view from our room's window.
Friday, March 14, 2008
What is the Commonality Between George Mason and Chicago
Economists at those two institutions live economics according to David Friedman. More here.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Most Hayekian Line of the Day
"Financial engineering" and "rule-based" monetary policy, by considering uncertain knowledge to be certain knowledge, are taking us in a hazardous direction.
The above has to be the most Hayekian line I have in paper today. That's from Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps. More here. And yes, both Hayek and Frank Knight are mentioned.
The above has to be the most Hayekian line I have in paper today. That's from Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps. More here. And yes, both Hayek and Frank Knight are mentioned.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Game Theory You Can Use
So you like Thinking Strategically for its user-friendly, almost jargon free writing style? Then probably you would also like its sequel The Art of Strategy due out this summer. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Best Working Paper I Have Read Today
The paper borrows ideas from IO and applies it in the political arena. Best bits of the paper:
Perhaps constitutions or other political institutions designed to police the amount of political
competitiveness better serve the public by monitoring entry barriers and markups than monitoring the number of competitors.
The monopolistic competition model suggests that the product mix and design , such as the composition of taxes, spending, and economic regulations are functions of economics and demographics, but not regime Although we do not deny that a dictator prefers more money to less, the fact that his taking is limited by the threat of entry means that he has an important reason to spend much of the tax revenue in the public interest: it buys him popular support and thereby regime longevity. Nondemocracies may collect more revenue, but they are not leviathans.
More here. One of the authors, Kevin Tsui now teaching at Clemson is from Hong Kong!
Perhaps constitutions or other political institutions designed to police the amount of political
competitiveness better serve the public by monitoring entry barriers and markups than monitoring the number of competitors.
The monopolistic competition model suggests that the product mix and design , such as the composition of taxes, spending, and economic regulations are functions of economics and demographics, but not regime Although we do not deny that a dictator prefers more money to less, the fact that his taking is limited by the threat of entry means that he has an important reason to spend much of the tax revenue in the public interest: it buys him popular support and thereby regime longevity. Nondemocracies may collect more revenue, but they are not leviathans.
More here. One of the authors, Kevin Tsui now teaching at Clemson is from Hong Kong!
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Want to Know More About India?
I know, there simply are too many books about India these days, and you are sick and tired of reading any more of them. Don't worry, I will only recommend books written by legi folks.
Three titles on India you want to have are:
1) Billions of Entrepreneurs:How China and India Are Reshaping Their Futures--and Yours by Harvard Business School professor T. Khanna. Here is a review of the book in Businessweek.
2) India: An Emerging Giant by Columbia U professor Arvind Panagariya. Here is what Free Trade guru Jagdish Bhagwati said about the book:
'Arvind Panagariya has produced a truly monumental, wide-ranging and penetrating work on the Indian economy. A tour de horizon and a tour de force--it will establish him as the most insightful economist writing on India today."
Here is a short commentary by the author on why India lags behind China in development.
3) In Spite of Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India by former US Secretary of Treaury Larry Summers' speech writer and journalist Edward Luce.
Three titles on India you want to have are:
1) Billions of Entrepreneurs:How China and India Are Reshaping Their Futures--and Yours by Harvard Business School professor T. Khanna. Here is a review of the book in Businessweek.
2) India: An Emerging Giant by Columbia U professor Arvind Panagariya. Here is what Free Trade guru Jagdish Bhagwati said about the book:
'Arvind Panagariya has produced a truly monumental, wide-ranging and penetrating work on the Indian economy. A tour de horizon and a tour de force--it will establish him as the most insightful economist writing on India today."
Here is a short commentary by the author on why India lags behind China in development.
3) In Spite of Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India by former US Secretary of Treaury Larry Summers' speech writer and journalist Edward Luce.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Sunday, March 02, 2008
The Theory of Share Tenancy -- A Celebration
...Professor Steven N.S. Cheung told me this morning there will be a conference this October in Shenzhen celebrating the fortieth anniversary of the publication of his "The Theory of Share Tenancy". "Will you come, Gary?" he asked. How could I give no as an answer?
Friday, February 29, 2008
My Co-Blogger Challenges Bill Gates' "Creative Capitalism" Idea
While not as troubled as George Bailey from “It’s A Wonderful Life”, Bill Gates is clearly in need of Clarence’s assistance. For those who did not catch the movie this past Christmas, Clarence was the angel who reminded George Bailey how much he contributed to the world. Bill Gate’s speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos shows just how little he appreciates all that he has done.
Bill Gates wants businesses to be more responsive to society’s greatest concerns. Mr. Gates faults capitalism for not caring about the world’s poor and disparages the “heartless” economic system that only serves the interests of the rich. His solution is to foster a system he calls “creative capitalism”. Creative capitalism would redirect the focus of corporations away from profits towards philanthropy. For those familiar with the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) movement, Gates’ creative capitalism will sound hauntingly familiar – his arguments also parallel the 2008 Democratic Presidential platform, but that is the topic for another editorial.
Ironically, the life of Bill Gates exemplifies the potential of capitalism to transform the world, reduce poverty, and create wealth for hundreds of millions of people...
Read more here.
Bottomline:
Like George Bailey, the world would certainly be a worse place if not for the efforts of Microsoft and Bill Gates. Before Bill decides to deride the ability of capitalism to help the world again, perhaps he should review his own past achievements and reflect on how much better off we all are (rich and poor) because of Bill Gates.
Bill Gates wants businesses to be more responsive to society’s greatest concerns. Mr. Gates faults capitalism for not caring about the world’s poor and disparages the “heartless” economic system that only serves the interests of the rich. His solution is to foster a system he calls “creative capitalism”. Creative capitalism would redirect the focus of corporations away from profits towards philanthropy. For those familiar with the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) movement, Gates’ creative capitalism will sound hauntingly familiar – his arguments also parallel the 2008 Democratic Presidential platform, but that is the topic for another editorial.
Ironically, the life of Bill Gates exemplifies the potential of capitalism to transform the world, reduce poverty, and create wealth for hundreds of millions of people...
Read more here.
Bottomline:
Like George Bailey, the world would certainly be a worse place if not for the efforts of Microsoft and Bill Gates. Before Bill decides to deride the ability of capitalism to help the world again, perhaps he should review his own past achievements and reflect on how much better off we all are (rich and poor) because of Bill Gates.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Masonomists or the Economists' Gang of Four
From left to right, Bryan Caplan, R Hanson, Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen. All four are economic professors at GMU.
Alex was a graduate student a year ahead of me when I entered GMU's Ph.D. program. He did not have any grey hair then. HT to Arnold up at Econlog for the pointer.
The Best Newspaper Article I Have Read Today
It's a WSJ editorial on rating agencies. Here is the most amazing bit:
Since 1975, the Securities and Exchange Commission has limited competition in the market for credit ratings by anointing only certain firms as "Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations" (NRSROs). A 2006 law has begun to lead to faster approvals of new entrants, but this follows decades of protection for the incumbent firms.
The SEC went an entire decade, beginning in 1992, without allowing a single new competitor into the market. Thomson reports that in 2007 Moody's rated 95% of corporate bonds, while S&P rated 93%. (Corporate bonds usually carry at least two ratings, so offerings often feature ratings from both S&P and Moody's.) Fitch, at 37%, is the only other firm with significant market share.
More here.
Bottomline:
The key to better ratings is for Congress to make the rating agencies compete in a market where no one is required to hire them.
Since 1975, the Securities and Exchange Commission has limited competition in the market for credit ratings by anointing only certain firms as "Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations" (NRSROs). A 2006 law has begun to lead to faster approvals of new entrants, but this follows decades of protection for the incumbent firms.
The SEC went an entire decade, beginning in 1992, without allowing a single new competitor into the market. Thomson reports that in 2007 Moody's rated 95% of corporate bonds, while S&P rated 93%. (Corporate bonds usually carry at least two ratings, so offerings often feature ratings from both S&P and Moody's.) Fitch, at 37%, is the only other firm with significant market share.
More here.
Bottomline:
The key to better ratings is for Congress to make the rating agencies compete in a market where no one is required to hire them.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Too Bad This Guy Isn't Applying for the Job of Market Analyst
According to a story in today's HK Standard:
Veteran newsman Robert Chow Yung yesterday publicly declared that he has applied for the director of broadcasting job in answer to what he termed prejudice and discrimination against non-degree holders like himself and six million Hong Kongers.
In an emotional and high-profile announcement, Chow, who is now a businessman and a Radio Television Hong Kong host, named legislators Emily Lau Wai-hing and Cheung Man- kwong as well as RTHK Programme Staff Union chairwoman Janet Mak Lai-ching for discriminating against "many other Hong Kongers who do not have a degree but pledge their earnest efforts to be successful."...
The controversy erupted after the government lowered its requirements for applicants to head RTHK. In contrast to the job's requirements posted last year, applicants will no longer be required to be university graduates provided they have at least 15 years' experience in the media or broadcasting fields.
The decision to lower the academic requirement has also led to speculation the post was tailored for Chow, a talk- show host and former Hong Kong Standard editor-in-chief. The veteran newsman yesterday said he was "more than competent" as head of RTHK because of his 40 years of experience in the industry, including three decades in management.
More here.
Gary's Comment: Too bad Robert Chow isn't applying for the post of economist or market analyst, for according to the latest column of Professor Steven N.S. Cheung, one does not need a degree in economics in order to understand how market works:
认识市场是不需要进大学的。
More here.
Veteran newsman Robert Chow Yung yesterday publicly declared that he has applied for the director of broadcasting job in answer to what he termed prejudice and discrimination against non-degree holders like himself and six million Hong Kongers.
In an emotional and high-profile announcement, Chow, who is now a businessman and a Radio Television Hong Kong host, named legislators Emily Lau Wai-hing and Cheung Man- kwong as well as RTHK Programme Staff Union chairwoman Janet Mak Lai-ching for discriminating against "many other Hong Kongers who do not have a degree but pledge their earnest efforts to be successful."...
The controversy erupted after the government lowered its requirements for applicants to head RTHK. In contrast to the job's requirements posted last year, applicants will no longer be required to be university graduates provided they have at least 15 years' experience in the media or broadcasting fields.
The decision to lower the academic requirement has also led to speculation the post was tailored for Chow, a talk- show host and former Hong Kong Standard editor-in-chief. The veteran newsman yesterday said he was "more than competent" as head of RTHK because of his 40 years of experience in the industry, including three decades in management.
More here.
Gary's Comment: Too bad Robert Chow isn't applying for the post of economist or market analyst, for according to the latest column of Professor Steven N.S. Cheung, one does not need a degree in economics in order to understand how market works:
认识市场是不需要进大学的。
More here.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
1979, 1980 and the Age of Milton Friedman
In 1979, Deng Xiao Ping started market reforms in China, which over the quarter century liftedhundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In the same year, Margaret Thatcher waselected Prime Minister in Britain, and initiated her radical reforms and a long period ofgrowth. A year later, Ronald Reagan was elected President of the United States, and alsoembraced free market policies.
All three of these leaders professed inspiration from thework of Milton Friedman. It is natural, then, to refer to the last quarter century as theAge of Milton Friedman.
Here is more from Harvard's Andrei Shleifer. HT to Dani Rodrik for the pointer.
All three of these leaders professed inspiration from thework of Milton Friedman. It is natural, then, to refer to the last quarter century as theAge of Milton Friedman.
Here is more from Harvard's Andrei Shleifer. HT to Dani Rodrik for the pointer.
A Talented Professor-to-be from Hong Kong
His name is K P Tsang, an assistant professor-to-be at Virginia Tech, a very good school. And yes, he actually attends the same graduate school where professor Steven N S Cheung once taught.
To be honest with you, I find his non-economic blog posts in Chinese a better read than his techical work. Well at least you do not have to go through all those tables, equations and appendix which contains pages of proofs when reading the former. Here is a sample of his non-economic writing in Chinese:
自小就愛寫作，愛幻想自己有寫作天份。從高談闊論到多愁善感，揮筆直書，洋洋灑灑，實在是自我滿足的最佳選擇。但愛寫作跟擅寫作是兩回事，就如五音不全的愛唱歌、陽萎的好女色一樣，一腔熱誠可換來一盤冷水，一分努力未必得到一分收穫。...
到了研究院，有空閒，讀了許多中外名著，才知道我也許有一點研究的才能，卻沒有一點寫作的天份。讀了喬治‧奧威爾的散文集，還敢寫散文嗎？讀了托爾斯泰的小說，還敢寫小說嗎？讀了以賽亞‧伯林的長文，還敢寫評論文章嗎？我讀佛利民、張五常，也不至如此沮喪。於是，《舊浪新潮》處於半倒閉的狀態，而我這個網誌，也只會告訴大家這本那本書好看，不敢寫如這一篇的抒情文字。
And if you insist, here is where you can find some of Byron's technical papers.
To be honest with you, I find his non-economic blog posts in Chinese a better read than his techical work. Well at least you do not have to go through all those tables, equations and appendix which contains pages of proofs when reading the former. Here is a sample of his non-economic writing in Chinese:
自小就愛寫作，愛幻想自己有寫作天份。從高談闊論到多愁善感，揮筆直書，洋洋灑灑，實在是自我滿足的最佳選擇。但愛寫作跟擅寫作是兩回事，就如五音不全的愛唱歌、陽萎的好女色一樣，一腔熱誠可換來一盤冷水，一分努力未必得到一分收穫。...
到了研究院，有空閒，讀了許多中外名著，才知道我也許有一點研究的才能，卻沒有一點寫作的天份。讀了喬治‧奧威爾的散文集，還敢寫散文嗎？讀了托爾斯泰的小說，還敢寫小說嗎？讀了以賽亞‧伯林的長文，還敢寫評論文章嗎？我讀佛利民、張五常，也不至如此沮喪。於是，《舊浪新潮》處於半倒閉的狀態，而我這個網誌，也只會告訴大家這本那本書好看，不敢寫如這一篇的抒情文字。
And if you insist, here is where you can find some of Byron's technical papers.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Privatization, Chinese Style
We document the market response to an unexpected announcement of proposed sales of government-owned shares in China. In contrast to the "privatization premium" found in earlier work, we find a negative effect of government ownership on returns at the announcement date and a symmetric positive effect in response to the announced cancellation of the government sell-off.
We argue that this results from the absence of a Chinese political transition to accompany economic reforms, so that the positive effects on profits of political ties through government ownership outweigh the potential efficiency costs of government shareholdings.
Read the paper here.
We argue that this results from the absence of a Chinese political transition to accompany economic reforms, so that the positive effects on profits of political ties through government ownership outweigh the potential efficiency costs of government shareholdings.
Read the paper here.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
MIT's Jim Poterba, NBER's Incoming President
It is official. MIT's Jim Poterba will be NBER's next president replacing outgoing chief Martin Feldstein.
More from WSJ.
More from WSJ.
社企
Fellow free marketeer Ming wrote;
其實企業無恆利(profit is windfall)，所謂盈利不過是資本家資金和企業家能力的回報，社企正由兩者放棄部分或全部收入回饋社會而成。政府資助在市場無法籌措資金的社企，無非是把公帑「回饋」社會，如此社企也不過是福利項目。
A deeper question is:
If the so called social enterprise can survive only through government subsidies, why the government does not just hand out the money to the recipients in the first place? Transactions costs considerations alone would certainly support my thesis that the goverment money should be handed out directly. Why not?
How different is a social enterprise from a state-owned enterprise if it has to pursue "social objective" on top of securing a decent return. When the two objectives clash, which one gets chosen (my guess is social objective) and by whom (my guess is the government which hands out the subsidy). If my hunch is correct, social enteprise may be more like an SOE than you think.
I have to admit that I am not familiar with the actual operations of social enterprise nor the literature covering the topic. My case against the idea of social enterprise is solely motivated by conceptual considerations.
Social enterprise advocates, convince me if I am wrong and I am ready to be convinced.
其實企業無恆利(profit is windfall)，所謂盈利不過是資本家資金和企業家能力的回報，社企正由兩者放棄部分或全部收入回饋社會而成。政府資助在市場無法籌措資金的社企，無非是把公帑「回饋」社會，如此社企也不過是福利項目。
A deeper question is:
If the so called social enterprise can survive only through government subsidies, why the government does not just hand out the money to the recipients in the first place? Transactions costs considerations alone would certainly support my thesis that the goverment money should be handed out directly. Why not?
How different is a social enterprise from a state-owned enterprise if it has to pursue "social objective" on top of securing a decent return. When the two objectives clash, which one gets chosen (my guess is social objective) and by whom (my guess is the government which hands out the subsidy). If my hunch is correct, social enteprise may be more like an SOE than you think.
I have to admit that I am not familiar with the actual operations of social enterprise nor the literature covering the topic. My case against the idea of social enterprise is solely motivated by conceptual considerations.
Social enterprise advocates, convince me if I am wrong and I am ready to be convinced.
International Trade: The Culprit of Global Income Divergence?
I am not totally convinced. But the argument is here:
The last 200 years saw a ‘Great Divergence’ in per capita income, as some countries industrialised while others remained less developed. This column attributes the divergence to international trade. Comparative advantage encouraged industrialising economies to invest in human capital, while non-industrial economies experienced population growth.
In international trade, or any trade for that matter, some traders may get a larger share of the gains, while others get a smaller cut of the gains. The bottom line, however, is that trade generates gain for both sides. For otherwise, there will be no incentive to trade in the first place.
What the scholars of the research result reported above worry about, the concerns of the how the gains from trade are distributed to the parties engage in trade, should come secondary to the more fundamental concern of how could we generate further gains from trade to start with. No?
The last 200 years saw a ‘Great Divergence’ in per capita income, as some countries industrialised while others remained less developed. This column attributes the divergence to international trade. Comparative advantage encouraged industrialising economies to invest in human capital, while non-industrial economies experienced population growth.
In international trade, or any trade for that matter, some traders may get a larger share of the gains, while others get a smaller cut of the gains. The bottom line, however, is that trade generates gain for both sides. For otherwise, there will be no incentive to trade in the first place.
What the scholars of the research result reported above worry about, the concerns of the how the gains from trade are distributed to the parties engage in trade, should come secondary to the more fundamental concern of how could we generate further gains from trade to start with. No?
The Most Intriguing Economic Analysis I Have Encountered So Far Today
And the winner goes to:
Tax Men More Than Women
According to the advocates of this idea, "this is not a policy for women against men but a policy that may favour households as a whole by helping realise a possibly more efficient allocation of duties and market activities across genders, which will increase overall household disposable income."
More here.
Hmmm, our next budget is due out next Wednesday and tax changes are expected, guess it is too late for you to do anything now, isn't it John?
Tax Men More Than Women
According to the advocates of this idea, "this is not a policy for women against men but a policy that may favour households as a whole by helping realise a possibly more efficient allocation of duties and market activities across genders, which will increase overall household disposable income."
More here.
Hmmm, our next budget is due out next Wednesday and tax changes are expected, guess it is too late for you to do anything now, isn't it John?
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Best Line on the Fed that I Have Read Today
"There's good monetary policy and there's bad monetary policy, and it doesn't break down along Democratic or Republican lines."
More from this WSJ story discussing the prospects of Fed Chairman Ben staying on his job for a new term.
More from this WSJ story discussing the prospects of Fed Chairman Ben staying on his job for a new term.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Best Line I Have Read So Far
Indeed, I have yet to see a sources-of-growth decomposition which answers a useful and relevant economic or policy question.
Read more here.
Read more here.
Why Indonesia Misses Out on the Global Resources Boom?
Indonesia is one of the world's most prospective countries, with large seams of copper, gold and nickel yet untapped under the ground, mining analysts say. Yet there have been no large new mines developed since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, meaning Indonesia is missing out on revenue from current high global prices for natural resources.
Why?
One major obstacle to foreign investment is fighting between the central and local governments over who should control mineral resources. Indonesia's parliament has been debating a new mining law which aims to settle those differences, but has as yet been unable to reach a compromise law.
More from this WSJ story.
Why?
One major obstacle to foreign investment is fighting between the central and local governments over who should control mineral resources. Indonesia's parliament has been debating a new mining law which aims to settle those differences, but has as yet been unable to reach a compromise law.
More from this WSJ story.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Are David Warsh's Remarks on Greg Mankiw Accurate?
Here is the latest from David Warsh:
And, unlike Feldstein, who taught Harvard’s principles course for twenty years before him, Mankiw’s posture as a leader in his field has come at the cost of a certain amount of obfuscation. It is not clear that his students (or even many of his colleagues) understand how completely left behind he has been by the events of the past twenty years. (Gary's emphasis) For example, he is still describing the lighthouse as a public good, even though the various mechanisms governing the potential excludability of its warning have turned out to be the key to this most familiar of all examples of a nonrival good.
And his most famous paper, “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth” of 1992, with David Romer, of the University of California at Berkeley, and David Weil, of Brown University, is generally considered to have failed in its defense of the “augmented Solow model,” meaning one in which human capital as well as capital and labor are sufficient to explain variations in growth.
What's going on here? Why Warsh's is so harsh on Greg, simply because of his denial of considering a job at NBER?
And, unlike Feldstein, who taught Harvard’s principles course for twenty years before him, Mankiw’s posture as a leader in his field has come at the cost of a certain amount of obfuscation. It is not clear that his students (or even many of his colleagues) understand how completely left behind he has been by the events of the past twenty years. (Gary's emphasis) For example, he is still describing the lighthouse as a public good, even though the various mechanisms governing the potential excludability of its warning have turned out to be the key to this most familiar of all examples of a nonrival good.
And his most famous paper, “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth” of 1992, with David Romer, of the University of California at Berkeley, and David Weil, of Brown University, is generally considered to have failed in its defense of the “augmented Solow model,” meaning one in which human capital as well as capital and labor are sufficient to explain variations in growth.
What's going on here? Why Warsh's is so harsh on Greg, simply because of his denial of considering a job at NBER?
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Spontaneous Order
Loyal reader Kempton asked me whether the title of my blog is inspired by F. Hayek. Indeed, but the origin of the concept of such an order goes back much earlier in history.
Guess Norman Barry's "The Tradition of Spontaneous Order" is still the best introductory work on this topic. You may also want to consult Tom Sowell's most excellent "A Conflict of Visions" which touches on similar issues.
Guess Norman Barry's "The Tradition of Spontaneous Order" is still the best introductory work on this topic. You may also want to consult Tom Sowell's most excellent "A Conflict of Visions" which touches on similar issues.
Adjustment at Multiple Margins
In today's edition of the HK Standard, a research study tells us that:
" [A] City University survey of more than 10,000 people last summer, found that overall consumer satisfaction last year hit a record high of 70.2 percent, up 0.1 percent from the previous year."
This is not the case for fast food because the survey found that consumers' satisfaction index for such food category fell last year.
According to the author of the study, the drop in satisfaction is attributable to the fact that "[t]he prices for those items went up but the quality remained the same or even deteriorated," he said. "Consumers may have felt they suffered a loss."
Everybody knows from reading newspapers that costs of materials needed for fast food industry like beef, pork as well as flour have increased a lot of late. Sometimes, you just can't pass on these cost increases through price adjustments, other margins exist for adjustments as well. And in this particular case, quality or/and portions of the food served.
In fact, customers of the fast food chain are partially to blame for the need to adjust prices, quality and serving portion. If less of them go to eat at those fast food restaurants, demand for inputs needed in the production of fast food will become less, and this in turn will probably lower the pressure for the fast food chains to raise prices in the first place!
" [A] City University survey of more than 10,000 people last summer, found that overall consumer satisfaction last year hit a record high of 70.2 percent, up 0.1 percent from the previous year."
This is not the case for fast food because the survey found that consumers' satisfaction index for such food category fell last year.
According to the author of the study, the drop in satisfaction is attributable to the fact that "[t]he prices for those items went up but the quality remained the same or even deteriorated," he said. "Consumers may have felt they suffered a loss."
Everybody knows from reading newspapers that costs of materials needed for fast food industry like beef, pork as well as flour have increased a lot of late. Sometimes, you just can't pass on these cost increases through price adjustments, other margins exist for adjustments as well. And in this particular case, quality or/and portions of the food served.
In fact, customers of the fast food chain are partially to blame for the need to adjust prices, quality and serving portion. If less of them go to eat at those fast food restaurants, demand for inputs needed in the production of fast food will become less, and this in turn will probably lower the pressure for the fast food chains to raise prices in the first place!
Monday, February 04, 2008
汪明會
汪明會不是人名, 汪和明是兩位新交的朋友。 會指的是我們上週的首次碰面。 成為朋友全因大家都秉持自由市場的信念。
今後香港自由市場的存廢，就要看他們的努力了。
Angela:
The introductory game theory book which you should bring along with you is called Thinking Strategically by A. Dixit and B. Nalebuff, and a good, solid introductory book you should also bring is Tom Sowell's Knowledge and Decision.
Ming:
The best collection of Hayek's technical economic papers can be found in his Individualism and Economic Order.
今後香港自由市場的存廢，就要看他們的努力了。
Angela:
The introductory game theory book which you should bring along with you is called Thinking Strategically by A. Dixit and B. Nalebuff, and a good, solid introductory book you should also bring is Tom Sowell's Knowledge and Decision.
Ming:
The best collection of Hayek's technical economic papers can be found in his Individualism and Economic Order.
Stupidity Hurts
In yesterday's edition of the HK Standard, there is a story on a concern group accusing the supermarket for charging high prices....
"Supermarket chains are charging up to 29 percent more than neighborhood grocery stores, a survey has found.
Supermarket Watch Group, which carried out the survey, warned that this could lead to further inflation and urged the government to speed up legislation on a competition law to avoid monopolies and unfair price setting. "We hope housewives can become smart consumers, but as smart as they could possibly be, they won't beat monopolized sale [techniques]," said legislator Wong Kwok-hing of the Federation of Trade Unions...
The group, which was set up in 2006 and includes district councillors, last month compared prices between two supermarkets and two grocery stores in Tung Chung and Tsuen Wan.
It found that food in the supermarket in Tsuen Wan was 26 percent higher than for the same items sold at the local grocer's. The Tung Chung supermarket was 18 percent more expensive."
I am not sure what is the problem here? If the supermarket charges higher prices for items compared with those at grocery stores, the thing to do, then, is simply not buy stuff from the supermarkets but not asking for an antitrust law.
And what about things other than food, I bet if they have the resources to conduct research on those items as well, their conclusion will probably be: if the prices at Supermarkets are higher than grocery stores, then there's evidence on monopoly; if prices at Supermarkets are lower than grocery stores, then there's also evidence on monopoly as supermarkets are trying to acquire monopoly status through predatory pricing!!
BTW, Mr Wong, now you are at it, we all know that wages for manual labor are far lower in the mainland than in HK. Why don't you push the government to allow more mainland workers into HK so as to level the playing field for our mainland brothers as well you hyprocite!
"Supermarket chains are charging up to 29 percent more than neighborhood grocery stores, a survey has found.
Supermarket Watch Group, which carried out the survey, warned that this could lead to further inflation and urged the government to speed up legislation on a competition law to avoid monopolies and unfair price setting. "We hope housewives can become smart consumers, but as smart as they could possibly be, they won't beat monopolized sale [techniques]," said legislator Wong Kwok-hing of the Federation of Trade Unions...
The group, which was set up in 2006 and includes district councillors, last month compared prices between two supermarkets and two grocery stores in Tung Chung and Tsuen Wan.
It found that food in the supermarket in Tsuen Wan was 26 percent higher than for the same items sold at the local grocer's. The Tung Chung supermarket was 18 percent more expensive."
I am not sure what is the problem here? If the supermarket charges higher prices for items compared with those at grocery stores, the thing to do, then, is simply not buy stuff from the supermarkets but not asking for an antitrust law.
And what about things other than food, I bet if they have the resources to conduct research on those items as well, their conclusion will probably be: if the prices at Supermarkets are higher than grocery stores, then there's evidence on monopoly; if prices at Supermarkets are lower than grocery stores, then there's also evidence on monopoly as supermarkets are trying to acquire monopoly status through predatory pricing!!
BTW, Mr Wong, now you are at it, we all know that wages for manual labor are far lower in the mainland than in HK. Why don't you push the government to allow more mainland workers into HK so as to level the playing field for our mainland brothers as well you hyprocite!
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin's Marshall Lecture
A lot of readers seem to be interested in the research work of incoming World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin. Here is latest one, a draft paper prepared for Marshall lecture delivered late last year.
BTW, simply gauging from the choice of economists to lead World Bank's and IMF's research (Simon Johnson) effort, it seems economists whose research efforts focus on the primary role of institutions as a driver of economic growth have been well accepted by the profession, at least by the bosses of the international financial institutions any way.
BTW, simply gauging from the choice of economists to lead World Bank's and IMF's research (Simon Johnson) effort, it seems economists whose research efforts focus on the primary role of institutions as a driver of economic growth have been well accepted by the profession, at least by the bosses of the international financial institutions any way.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Larry Summers on Sovereign Investment Funds
The link is here, HT to Greg Mankiw for the pointer.
This is the part I like best:
Summers responded with an anecdote about how the Norwegian fund had sold short the shares of Icelandic banks, and the potential political complications those actions raised. Touché, right back! (At which point I turned to the private-equity executive sitting behind me, and said: "He's so sharp they should make him the president of Harvard." The response from the Harvard grad: "This is why he didn't make it as president of Harvard.") (Italics mine)
This is the part I like best:
Summers responded with an anecdote about how the Norwegian fund had sold short the shares of Icelandic banks, and the potential political complications those actions raised. Touché, right back! (At which point I turned to the private-equity executive sitting behind me, and said: "He's so sharp they should make him the president of Harvard." The response from the Harvard grad: "This is why he didn't make it as president of Harvard.") (Italics mine)
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Oxford's Short Introduction Series
Oxford has published a series of short introductory books on various topics, I have read one of them called Political Philosophy, and it's pretty good.
Other books in the series I have purchased but have not read include Game Theory: A Very Short Introduction (by Ken Binmore, yes the guy who actually designed the scheme of auction for UK's 3 G license) and Economics: A Very Short Introduction. And David Warsh up at Economic Principals has a very positive review on the latter book.
Other books in the series I have purchased but have not read include Game Theory: A Very Short Introduction (by Ken Binmore, yes the guy who actually designed the scheme of auction for UK's 3 G license) and Economics: A Very Short Introduction. And David Warsh up at Economic Principals has a very positive review on the latter book.
More on World Bank's Chief Economist Justin Lin
Reader Kempton asked me if Justin did his thesis on China's agricultural reform. I believe he did. I think his 1992 AER piece was part of his dissertation. I believe that paper was also the first attempt to quantify the benefits of the introduction of the household responsibility system (聯產承包責任制) in China's country side.
Actually, in addition to Justin, I believe there are a couple of other Chinese graduates from Chicago who did choose China's agricultral reform as their thesis topic. They are James Wen (at Trinity), Dennis Yang (at CUHK) and Zhao Yaohui (at Beijing U)
Actually, in addition to Justin, I believe there are a couple of other Chinese graduates from Chicago who did choose China's agricultral reform as their thesis topic. They are James Wen (at Trinity), Dennis Yang (at CUHK) and Zhao Yaohui (at Beijing U)
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
A Surprise Cut in Fed Rate
Here is more.
Another recession is in the making years down the road if you believe in the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). Two wrongs (a low rate environment years ago which resulted in the current mess + current rate cuts to avoid the consequences of the earlier low rates) do not make one right.
But what are the options? If you were the Fed chief, and you believe in ABC theory, what would you do? Doing nothing? Just let the market sweep the slate clean and start all over again?
Another recession is in the making years down the road if you believe in the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). Two wrongs (a low rate environment years ago which resulted in the current mess + current rate cuts to avoid the consequences of the earlier low rates) do not make one right.
But what are the options? If you were the Fed chief, and you believe in ABC theory, what would you do? Doing nothing? Just let the market sweep the slate clean and start all over again?
Monday, January 21, 2008
World Bank Chief Economist-to-be Justin Lin
Here is a story in mainland's financial magazine Caijing. Here is another story about Lin's employment up at WSJ.
Justin wrote his thesis under the supervision of the late Dale G Johnson at Chicago.
And here is a link to a video on Justin delivering his Marshall Lectures at Cambridge late last year.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Paul Krugman on Subprime
The fundamental cause of the sub-prime mess, according to Paul Krugman, is:
The real sin, both of the Fed and of the Bush administration, was the failure to exercise adult supervision over markets running wild.
His advice:
But let’s hope that when the dust settles a bit, Mr. Bernanke takes the lead in talking about what needs to be done to fix a financial system gone very, very wrong.
More here.
So the bottomline of Krugmanian approach to preventing economic crisis is:
Crisis ---> implies more regulation is need--->more regulation is implemented ----> if crisis still recurs ---> that means more and more regulations will be needed---> these additional regulations are implemented as well ---until the market is finally choked because of too many regulations, and there won't be any crisis. This then proves government regulation is effective in preventing crisis.
The real sin, both of the Fed and of the Bush administration, was the failure to exercise adult supervision over markets running wild.
His advice:
But let’s hope that when the dust settles a bit, Mr. Bernanke takes the lead in talking about what needs to be done to fix a financial system gone very, very wrong.
More here.
So the bottomline of Krugmanian approach to preventing economic crisis is:
Crisis ---> implies more regulation is need--->more regulation is implemented ----> if crisis still recurs ---> that means more and more regulations will be needed---> these additional regulations are implemented as well ---until the market is finally choked because of too many regulations, and there won't be any crisis. This then proves government regulation is effective in preventing crisis.
Assorted Links
1. A nice piece on supply side economics by U of Chicago professor A Coolsbee. He is advising the campaign of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democratic presidential nomination.
2. The Education of Ben Bernanke.
2. The Education of Ben Bernanke.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Violence for Fun?!
New research on mice shows the brain processes aggressive behavior as it does other rewards. Mice sought violence, in fact, picking fights for no apparent reason other than the rewarding feeling.
The mouse brain is thought to be analogous to the human brain in this study, which could shed light on our fascination with brutal sports as well as our own penchant for the classic bar brawl.
Here is more from LiveScience.
The mouse brain is thought to be analogous to the human brain in this study, which could shed light on our fascination with brutal sports as well as our own penchant for the classic bar brawl.
Here is more from LiveScience.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
難題
Suppose you write a blog, somebody left a message/0r messages in one of your posts. And you all agree to meet for lunch.
The MILLION dollar question is: HOW should one go about organzing it. Yes, you could leave you contact number or your email address, but that's risky when cyber theft and all other threats are daily occurings.
The actual meeting is the easiest part of it all. You could just tell you cyber buddies what color of your outfit is or what book you are carrying with you for easy identification.
明, Angela, ideas please?
The MILLION dollar question is: HOW should one go about organzing it. Yes, you could leave you contact number or your email address, but that's risky when cyber theft and all other threats are daily occurings.
The actual meeting is the easiest part of it all. You could just tell you cyber buddies what color of your outfit is or what book you are carrying with you for easy identification.
明, Angela, ideas please?
Gang Leader for a Day
That's the title of a book which I bought yesterday at Page One's Central branch.
What's it about?
Well, if you have read Freakonomics, you should remember that there is a segment in it where Steve Levitt wrote about his research on gang activities coauthored with sociologist S Venkatesh. Well, Venkatesh is the author of this new book.
Here is a short blurb of the book from Steve, here is another review by my former teacher Tyler Cowen up at Marginal Revolution.
Here is the page for the book.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Finally, a Popular Book on Behavioral Economics
It's called Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions, by Dan Ariely at MIT.
Advance praise from George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics:
“Predictably Irrational is wildly original. It shows why–much more often than we usually care to admit–humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser.”
Here is a page dedicated to the book, stay tuned!
Advance praise from George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics:
“Predictably Irrational is wildly original. It shows why–much more often than we usually care to admit–humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser.”
Here is a page dedicated to the book, stay tuned!
Anna Schwartz: Blame Greenspan for the Sub-prime Crisis!
"There never would have been a sub-prime mortgage crisis if the Fed had been alert. This is something Alan Greenspan must answer for," she says.
More here from the British Paper the Telegraph. HT to Austrian Economists for the pointer.
More here from the British Paper the Telegraph. HT to Austrian Economists for the pointer.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Most Bogus Reason for Building a Government House
According to Director of Administration, one of the nice things about the the $4.94-billion new government complex is that it will help ease unemployment problem of the contruction workers. This is the case because the project is expected to hire about 3,000 contruction works.
More here.
If these workers are really deserved to be helped, why don't they just pay them directly instead? Doing so would certainly cut the efficiencies which plague all government projects anyway. Regardingthe problem of shortage of office space for both civil servants and our "honourable" LegCo members, why not just rent some place for them?
Those LegCo members even dare to call themselves "OUR" representatives? It's our money we are talking about here. If they were indeed "OUR" Reps, they should be more careful in using our hard-earned money, wouldn't hey? If they were indeed "OUR" Reps, they should not have passed that governemnt expenditure bill in the first place!!!!!
Damn, am I angry!!!!
More here.
If these workers are really deserved to be helped, why don't they just pay them directly instead? Doing so would certainly cut the efficiencies which plague all government projects anyway. Regardingthe problem of shortage of office space for both civil servants and our "honourable" LegCo members, why not just rent some place for them?
Those LegCo members even dare to call themselves "OUR" representatives? It's our money we are talking about here. If they were indeed "OUR" Reps, they should be more careful in using our hard-earned money, wouldn't hey? If they were indeed "OUR" Reps, they should not have passed that governemnt expenditure bill in the first place!!!!!
Damn, am I angry!!!!
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
有心人
再次感謝明 (I do not know Aries and 明 are the same person), Kempton 和 王小姐為教授所撰寫的維基 entry (這字應如何翻繹 ?)。
Angela: Of course I have heard about the Lion Rock Institute, actually I am the one who asked Simon to try his luck at Apple when I left there back in 2005. Congratulations and welcome to Hong Kong.
Angela and Kempton: please do not address me as prof, I left Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2003. And even then, I was not a professor, I had only research and admin duties there.
Aries: Are you an econ major? Just curious. Also under the heading contribution to economics in professor Cheung's entry, item 2.4, I think what you are referring to should be neoclassical econoimcs, not New Classical economics(they are two different things). Of course, I could be wrong on that.
Angela: Of course I have heard about the Lion Rock Institute, actually I am the one who asked Simon to try his luck at Apple when I left there back in 2005. Congratulations and welcome to Hong Kong.
Angela and Kempton: please do not address me as prof, I left Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2003. And even then, I was not a professor, I had only research and admin duties there.
Aries: Are you an econ major? Just curious. Also under the heading contribution to economics in professor Cheung's entry, item 2.4, I think what you are referring to should be neoclassical econoimcs, not New Classical economics(they are two different things). Of course, I could be wrong on that.
Monday, January 07, 2008
Professor Steven Cheung's Wikipedia Entry
Here it is.
Many thanks to the authors of this entry, Kempton, Angela Wang, Wallace and Aries.
I have also learned from Angela's blog that Cato has set up a Chinese venture, more here. And thanks Angela for the pointer. Even better, Angela is an economist by training!!!
Many thanks to the authors of this entry, Kempton, Angela Wang, Wallace and Aries.
I have also learned from Angela's blog that Cato has set up a Chinese venture, more here. And thanks Angela for the pointer. Even better, Angela is an economist by training!!!
不說鬼話，不說神話，只說人話
上引句是余英時 (Yu Ying-shih) 在傑出 華 人 系 列 節目中說的。 In addition, professor Yu also made use of a central theme in Hayek's Fatal Conceit to support his claim that it is dangerous for someone to think that society can be changed according to one's wishes.
Markets For Everything, a Car that Drives for Itself
Yes, all the major car makers (like Toyota, GM, VW, and Daimler AG) are working on cars that drive themselves. That is from a story in WSJ, more here.
And I think this stuff is really cool: "Millions of vehicles on the road now have GM's OnStar communications system. In the future it could provide the backbone for accident avoidance technology that kicks in if two vehicles equipped with communications systems are in danger of colliding."
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Notable Books For January 2008
1. A book on prediction market for the layman.
2. How Judges Think by Judge Richard Ponser.
3. Tom Sowell's new book Economic Facts and Fallacies. Thanks to my old friend Dennis Chan for informing me about the existence of this title over dinner tonight.
4. Game Theory, part of the A Very Short Introduction series from the Oxford University Press by game theory master Ken Binmore.
2. How Judges Think by Judge Richard Ponser.
3. Tom Sowell's new book Economic Facts and Fallacies. Thanks to my old friend Dennis Chan for informing me about the existence of this title over dinner tonight.
4. Game Theory, part of the A Very Short Introduction series from the Oxford University Press by game theory master Ken Binmore.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
A Revisionist History of Yuan Shikai's Attempt to Resurrect Monarchy
This is the book I am reading right now, highly recommended. The author is not as harsh on Yuan Shikai's attempt to revive monarchy as older historians.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
集結號
自小愛看戰爭電影。喜歡的原因随時光的流逝而不同。
小時愛看戰爭場面，長大了仍喜歡，近年更多為這些電影描寫的手足情。
說實話，when is the last time you have a friend who is willing to use his or her life to save you? 現實中找不着的，只能在電影的虛擬世界中尋回。
人的本性是求存，軍令卻要求你留守到最後一刻，what would you do?
小時愛看戰爭場面，長大了仍喜歡，近年更多為這些電影描寫的手足情。
說實話，when is the last time you have a friend who is willing to use his or her life to save you? 現實中找不着的，只能在電影的虛擬世界中尋回。
人的本性是求存，軍令卻要求你留守到最後一刻，what would you do?
Here is the official website of the movie, Assembly. I saw it last night. It is really good, highly recommended.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Best Line I Have Read Today
说得不好听，经济发展是要有很多枯骨的——不容许枯骨，何来一将？
That's professor Steven Cheung talking, more here.
Actually, when you think of it, the professor's statment is very Hayekian. You let more players with diverse knowledge to participate in the exchange process, a larger knowledge base will get utilized as a result and the more likely that some successful product, production process or organization form will emerge from the the competitive process.
That's professor Steven Cheung talking, more here.
Actually, when you think of it, the professor's statment is very Hayekian. You let more players with diverse knowledge to participate in the exchange process, a larger knowledge base will get utilized as a result and the more likely that some successful product, production process or organization form will emerge from the the competitive process.
Does Shifting Polluting Industries Aboard Account for Lower Emissions in the US?
Since the 1970s, US manufacturing output has risen by 70% but air pollution has fallen by 58%. Was this due to improved abatement technology or shifting dirty production abroad?
Increased net imports of polluting goods account for about 70 percent of the composition-related decline in US manufacturing pollution. The composition effect in turn explains about 40 percent of the overall decline in pollution from US manufacturing. Putting these two findings together, international trade can explain at most 28 percent of the clean-up of US manufacturing.
More here.
Increased net imports of polluting goods account for about 70 percent of the composition-related decline in US manufacturing pollution. The composition effect in turn explains about 40 percent of the overall decline in pollution from US manufacturing. Putting these two findings together, international trade can explain at most 28 percent of the clean-up of US manufacturing.
More here.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Will the Real Coase Theorm Please Stand Up!
My view is that virtually all of the criticism of the Coase theorem
fails to appreciate the actual message that Coase intended with “Social
Cost” and is, therefore, essentially irrelevant. Tragically, because
we have focused on what he was not saying, we have not grasped what
he was saying. Consequently we have been neither sufficiently appreciative
nor sufficiently critical of his actual message.
Read the paper here.
Mind you, the author has not cited any of professor Steven Cheung's work in the piece. Will it affect the quality of his work, you decide by yourself!
fails to appreciate the actual message that Coase intended with “Social
Cost” and is, therefore, essentially irrelevant. Tragically, because
we have focused on what he was not saying, we have not grasped what
he was saying. Consequently we have been neither sufficiently appreciative
nor sufficiently critical of his actual message.
Read the paper here.
Mind you, the author has not cited any of professor Steven Cheung's work in the piece. Will it affect the quality of his work, you decide by yourself!
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