感慨

從讀者回應的多寡看, 王迪詩 (Daisy) 在信報的專欄，應有不少讀者。我對王文的觀感，她的一位讀者巳替我道出：

小姐，我善意提醒一句，在大聲否定某種論調之前，最好先搞清楚你想批評的論調的內容。思想不夠深刻不是罪過，但若連基本的功課都不做就信口開河，就未免顯得自己太懶惰和無知。

我在想，假如王小姐在美國而不是香港唸本科，情況是否會好些。道理很簡單，在美唸本科，王小姐根本不能挑法律作主修，她的學養和眼界 ，在接觸多種不同的學科後必能得以拓寬不用靠扮 smart ass 來 取悅讀者。

And given her punishing and hectic schedule, I would imagine she would be more inclined to bring a copy of Tuesday with Morris with her on a business trip rather than Hayek's Constitution of Liberty. So I doubt she has that much time to beef up her general knowledge after graduation.

Or May be I am totally wrong, may be an author no longer needs to check her facts and even logic so long as her work is able to attract readers. May be her writing style, which appeals to readers' emotional response instead of their intellect, is exactly what readers are after these days.


三年前肥佬黎對我說: Gary, 你不用在文章內講邏輯說道理，光駡人就行。
我答: I do not know how to write a piece without an argument.


那年我三十九歲，若當時我和Daisy 同年即二十八歲，也許我的答案會不一樣！？

Who Did the Marking?

The book you see above is Frank Knight's Ethics of Competition. Guess who left the marking in the above book?

Hint: A renown professor famous for his work on justice. HT to Adam Smith Lives for the picture.

記招

X -- 記者
Y -- 天才

X: 可否說一下你 n 歲入大學的感想？
Y: N*N = N to the power 2

X: 和比你年長的同學溝通有困難嗎？
Y: 你不是比我年長嗎？你說我們溝通有問題嗎？

X: 你最敬佩的人是...
Y : Fischer Black

X: 什麽？誰？可否再說一遍？是不是你老爸？
Y: Oh no, forget it. Next!

感動

Ratatouille 最精彩的一幕，無疑是食評家Anton Ego 在片末的一段獨白。

In many ways, the work of a critic is easy.

We risk very little yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment. We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face is that, in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is more meaningful than our criticism designating it so.

But there are times when a critic truly risks something, and that is in the discovery and defense of the new. Last night, I experienced something new, an extraordinary meal from a singularly unexpected source. To say that both the meal and its maker have challenged my preconceptions is a gross understatement. They have rocked me to my core. In the past, I have made no secret of my disdain for Chef Gusteau's famous motto: Anyone can cook. But I realize that only now do I truly understand what he meant. Not everyone can become a great artist, but a great artist can come from anywhere.

It is difficult to imagine more humble origins than those of the genius now cooking at Gusteau's, who is, in this critic's opinion, nothing less than the finest chef in France. I will be returning to Gusteau's soon, hungry for more.

感謝楊懐康為我提供原文。

Modernization Thesis Reevaluated

The modernization thesis championed by political scientist Seymour Lipset argues that socioeconomic development would eventually lead to democratic development.

A new paper reevaluates the thesis and concludes:

Our overall conclusion is that the relationship between income and democracy and the widely-accepted modernization hypothesis need to be reevaluated, with much greater emphasis on the underlying factors affecting both variables and the political and economic development path of societies.

Our results indicate that countries have embarked upon different development paths, most likely at some critical junctures during their histories, and while some paths have led to democracy and prosperity, some others involved non-democracy and relative poverty.

Although democracy and prosperity coevolve along the virtuous development path, there is no evidence that income has a causal erect on democracy conditional on the development path.

Consequently, there is no reason to expect income changes over 5, 10 or even 20 year intervals observed during the post-war era to lead to signifcant changes in regimes above and beyond those experienced by the world as a whole.

What's New at My Alma Mater?

New faces, many of them.

Read more here.

In case you don't know, one of my former teachers is having an on-going, on-line book forum on his blog, here is the first installment.

Will More Foreign Aid Help?

Bottom line: No.

I like this bit best:

Aid advocacy leads to perhaps an even more serious problem. There is a limited stock of good will and good intentions in the rich world and the question becomes whether this stock is best harnessed by mobilizing more aid, or by pursuing alternative actions that could have a bigger impact.

Now that is an excellent opportunity cost thinking. Read more here.

往事

在書局看到國內新出版的一套譯介奧國經濟學(Austrian Economics)的專著，譯者是姚中秋，一段往事随之在腦海中浮現。

多年前還在報社任職時，因工作需要，要為評論版找來一批支持自由市場的撰稿人，就此透過當時還身在廣州的薛兆豐認識了中秋‧不太稔熟，且素未謀面，可心裏就認定，他是有心人。要為在中國推廣奧國經濟學，盡他力所能及的一分力。

一天突然收到中秋的電郵，告我出於某些特殊原因，他不便再向我們供稿。不久我也離開了報社。

年多前，老師余赴禮向我提過他協辦的中國海耶克學會，知道中秋兄為這學會的成立，花了很大的功夫。 此後便沒有再讀到聽到姚中秋三字。 直至今天 that is。

The Era of Ben Bernanke Has Just Begun!

A couple of days ago, a column in the local paper Hong Kong Economic Times criticized Bernanke for not lowering the Fed Funds rate. You could tell reading through his arguments that the writer lacks knowledge of elementary monetary economics.

So you want to hear what an expert in monetary economics has to say about Ben's latest move to cut the Fed's Discount Rate, read here.

The Most Intelligent Commentary on Sub-prime "crisis"

Here is the bottomline:

The deeper moral is simple. Financial markets exist to do risky things. The more risk they take, the higher the (expected) returns. You can use regulation to squeeze risk out of a segment of the market, say banks, but you don’t eliminate the risk, you just move it elsewhere. New segments, say hedge funds, emerge to take over the risk and the high (expected) returns that go with it.

The problem is that little is known of the new segment and its players, so the armies of regulators and supervisors that protect us look in the wrong direction because they don’t know where to look. There has been much talk about regulating the hedge funds; it might happen, so the game will move elsewhere.

The only way to eliminate financial crises is to fully eliminate risk. Kim Jung Il knows how; eliminate financial institutions. But that means no (expected) returns. (my emphasis)

The post is witty, well written and mostly jargon free. It tackles the sub-prime issue at a conceptual level that is hard to find in your daily paper. No, you won't even find it in your copy of FT or WSJ. Read the whole thing here.

The Only Blog Post that You Must Read Today

No, no excluding this one of course. What it's about?

First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics.

Any body worth his salt as an economist SHOULD read it.

Should I Read This or Not?

Despite heaps of praises piled on Greg Clark's Farewell to Alms, read here and here, David Warsh at Economic Principals begs to differ. His comments are harsh at times.

Who is right?

陳方安生在當上民主女神前說了些什麽

Mrs Chan said the Government's policy has always been characterised as positive non-interventionism. The Government does not intervene unless it is in the overall public interest to do so. Its involvement in the Cyberport is a natural extension of this process. (My Emphasis)

That is from a 1999 HKSAR Government Press Release, read more here.

So You Want to be Rich?

Then read this.

And this is what a reviewer of the book said:

"This short and entertaining book packs a vast amount of serious information about your brain, about your mind, and about your money. You will learn a lot when you read it for the first time and you will probably want to read it again to learn some more."

-- Daniel Kahneman, professor of psychology, Princeton University, and winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics

Puzzle of the Day

My sister in law has a Ph.D. from Cambridge. Whenever she dispenses her opinion, my wife and her parents (my inlaws were both graduates from Peking University back in the late 1950s, no small feat indeed) listen.

It doesn't matter what topic is being discussed, it does not matter that my wife and my inlaws start with different views on the same matter, they will automatically switch side and accept my sister in law's view without hesitation.

And the question is why?

Is it because she has her Ph.D.? But isn't it the case that her Ph.D. only represents her expertise in certain area of study not in all areas.

Is it because the fact that she has got her degree signals to others that she is smart (like higher IQ), so people who have received less education believe that in matters that they are not completely sure how to deal with themselves, it is better to delegate the task of workng out a solution to those who have higher IQ. The presumption is that higher IQ people have a better chance of figuring out the best course of action. Is there any basis on this claim?

Is it because higher level of educational attainment indicates higher level of IQ and problem-solving ability as well?

Those readers who are knowledgable in neuroscience and psychology, educate me.

I Wish I Were Him

But I am not. Here is Gary Shiu.

Milton and Money Stock Control

Although Milton did not prevail in his quest to have the Fed maintain a constant money-growth rate, he did prevail in his insistence that policy be apolitical and rely to the maximum possible extent on market judgments. He lost a battle but truly did win the war.

That's from St.Louis Fed's Bill Poole. More here.